Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty—two concepts dating back to economist Frank Knight (1921)—has become popular in financial policy analyses in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Risk refers to all those possible futures whose probabilities can be estimated, put in numbers, the “known unknowns.” Uncertainty, on the other hand, refers to the …Read More

As I write in mid-July 2016, all the Transatlantic chatterati can seem to talk and write about—except when temporarily interrupted by terrorist outrages like the one at the Istanbul airport on June 28—is Brexit. It is as though, for some, everything was just fine in Europe before June 23. And it is all too typical …Read More

The shock of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has German carmakers scrambling. Not only is Britain their number one export market, last year, British buyers spent €22 billion on over 800,000 BMWs, Mercedes, Volkswagens and other German cars. What’s more, Britain is also deeply embedded in the German automakers’ complex supply chains. The …Read More

Amid continuing uncertainties after the UK’s decision to leave the EU, AICGS President Jackson Janes sits down with Dr. Werner Hoyer, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the European Investment Bank, to discuss the path forward for the European project. Although the departure of the UK is a tremendous loss for the …Read More

Das Vereinigte Königreich hätte auch im Falle seines Verbleibes in der EU weiter um seine Sonderrechte gekämpft, nur ausgesuchte Projekte und Maßnahmen des Integrationswerkes akzeptiert und wäre somit ein unbequemer Partner geblieben. Der Ausgang des Referendums reflektiert neben aktuellen Sorgen breiter Kreise der britischen Bevölkerung auch alte, zum Teil Jahrhunderte alte Kräfte, die Londons Haltung …Read More

Is Brexit a warning shot or a mortal wound for the European project? “What is past is prologue,” wrote Shakespeare in The Tempest, a play about the fragility of life and human nature. “Hell is empty and all the devils are here.” In Europe, the past is always prologue, but certainly today, it created the …Read More

In a recent speech delivered at the World Affairs Council and American Council on Germany in San Francisco, Dr. Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, assessed the current market environment after Brexit, noting that while financial markets are not in panic, investments are looking for guidance in a period of …Read More

Twenty five years ago—as the Balkan wars were descending into hell—Jacques Poos, the then-Prime Minister of Luxembourg, declared that “the hour of Europe has dawned.” That declaration followed the unification of Germany and accompanied the unravelling of the Soviet Union in its last throes. Many welcomed the notion that a uniting Europe no longer bound …Read More

Queen Elizabeth, the United Kingdom’s longest-serving monarch, undertook what was, perhaps, her final state visit last year. Of all the places she could have traveled to, she chose Germany, the de facto leader of Europe. The three-day tour was filled with reminders of U.K.-German relations—a lecture on their shared history by the popular historian Neil …Read More

On the eve of the UK referendum that would decide the country’s membership in the EU, Bruce Stikes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes at Pew Research Center, sits down with AICGS President Dr. Jackson Janes to discuss the public sentiment about the EU in domestic and international affairs reflected in recent poll results. Referring to …Read More

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