Surprises for the elections in Hamburg provided citizenship for ten years. In this town there is a stray protest potential. The number of uncommitted voters rises from election to election in this city. Were able to explain 20 percent for 2001, the right-wing populist Schill, just as the first black-green coalition in 2008 in a federal state. Even with the recent election in Hamburg confirmed the surprise effect. Five parties managed it in the Hamburg parliament. At the same time govern Olaf Scholz for SPD with an absolute majority. Five-party parliament and absolute majorities usually mutually exclusive. The FDP and the Left managed very briefly to enter parliament. The distance between the CDU (21.9) and SPD (48.3) is enormous. The Greens received 11.2 percent, only slightly more than in the 2008 election. Without the history of this election result is not interpretable. The SPD also benefited extremely from the fact that the Hamburg parliament dissolved itself. Sealed was the end of black-green – when the mayor Ole von Beust resigned – for personal reasons. Not the project failed and was not re-elected. Rather, the unifying figure for Ole von Beust, was no longer available. He was the coalition putty. The hamburger had chosen him more than the CDU. To that extent could any successor in office, as now fail Ahlhaus only. The change of mood brought back after ten years, the Social Democrats to power. The pendulum swing was quite clear. Scholz understand it, one centered on the middle SPD imagine that cares not only about the precarity, but also appealed to the service providers in the city. Thus, once more people make a difference. The social and economic Hanseat Scholz was ready as a problem solver for Hamburg. Problem-solving skills could however not demonstrate Ahlhaus – in the estimation of the electorate. A series may start from it but are for any party in the election year. The Hamburg-based ratios were unique and incomparable with the other six coming state elections. Not everything can be the heir of a desolate SPD coalition. Not everywhere, the FDP has such attractive staff to take the 5-percent hurdle to flirt factor. Not everywhere, it lacks the CDU leading candidate to problem-solving skills. Not everywhere, the Greens will compete as a ruling party in the election campaign. Together remains that fewer and fewer choose. This gives more and more less and less influence on the outcome. It remains unclear where the so-called Wutbürger crosses his sets? In Hamburg, he was probably more at home. In no case could the Greens integrate with their citizens’ initiatives, such Klientismus Wutbürger. On the contrary, the Greens had in the referendum on the school policy in Hamburg, the first citizens’ initiative against him on the street.

Prof. Dr. Karl-Rudolf Korte is Dean of the NRW School of Governance at the University of Duisburg-Essen and a former DAAD / AICGS Fellow.

This essay appeared in the February 24, 2011, AICGS Advisor .