Barack Obama in Israel
By Dr. Angelika Timm

As the Israeli daily Haaretz noticed, not since Yitzhak Rabin's funeral has Israel hosted as many senior officials from abroad as it has this year - among them U.S. President George W. Bush, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. But the thirty-six hour visit by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama generated more interest than any of them. The Israeli press reserved the word "Obamania" for the warm welcome Germany offered Obama, but the Hebrew daily Maariv wrote about an "Obama Festival" and the Jerusalem Post called his visit "a whirlwind trip." Republican candidate Senator John McCain did not attract the same attention when he visited Jerusalem a few months ago, although most Israelis seemed to be in favor of the old man, who reminds them of Ariel Sharon or of other older Israeli statesmen. Against him, the Democratic candidate seemed to be, first of all, "the darling of the left," as Shmuel Rosner put it in a pro-McCain article in Haaretz.

The big interest in the Obama visit now cannot be explained by a change of Israeli society but by a "Realpolitik" that influences public opinion. Israelis understand that Obama's chances to become the next president of the United States are not bad. He could be the man who will stimulate to a high extent the strategic partnership between both countries - a crucial element of Israeli foreign and security policy. Until now, most Israelis have preferred the Republican candidate John McCain, who presents himself as someone who understands Israel's needs and promises to continue Bush's Middle East policy. But they also want to know more about the Democratic candidate, his aims and visions - just in case he is elected. Obama, who is regarded as someone who does not have any experience in foreign policy and especially in Middle East affairs, had, therefore, to answer many anxious questions and dispel the concern that "he will not be good for Israel and the Jews."

Barack Obama came well prepared to Israel knowing that "the way to the White House goes through Israel," as an Israeli TV News commentator put it. While in the past about 80 percent of American Jews voted for the Democratic presidential candidate, recent opinion polls show that only about 64-65 percent of American Jews are ready to vote for Obama. That means his visit to Israel should also have a serious domestic impact. Knowing that, Obama tried to inch closer to Israel and to reassure Israelis and potential American Jewish voters that his positions on Iran, Jerusalem, Syria, and the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are in accordance with Israel's interests. His schedule contained meetings with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Jerusalem, but also - in contrast to McCain - with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad in Ramallah. He went to Yad Vashem, the Western Wall in the Old City of Jerusalem, and visited the small town Sderot in the Western Negev, where Kassam rockets fired from the Gaza Strip land almost daily.

The main issues - Iran, Jerusalem, Syria, Israeli-Palestinian relations - were raised several times and Obama obviously knew on every question a "Zionist" answer (Jedioth Aharonoth). He reaffirmed the special relationship between Israel and the United States and underlined his strong commitment to Israel's security. He declared the Iranian issue a top priority for him as president, Jerusalem as a city that should not be divided, Syrian-Israeli negotiations as necessary "in order to cut Syria off from Iran," and promised to coordinate American policy on Iran with Israel. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, Obama promoted peace talks on the basis of existing initiatives - the international Quartet's road map or the Annapolis Declaration.

Does that mean that the "change" Obama offers the American voters does not include any changes in the U.S. Middle East policy? At least, some new nuances were heard in Jerusalem. Obama said in a press conference: "We don't want a peace deal just to have a piece of paper that doesn't result in peace." He emphasized the need to stop "aggressive settlement construction" in the occupied Palestinian territories because it violates "the spirit, at least, if not the letter, of agreements that have been made previously." Regarding the Iran nuclear issue, Obama favors a direct dialogue with Iran. He told Prime Minister Olmert that the Iranians must be given an opportunity to change. This could be a point that many Israelis would not be ready to accept. They fear that an elected Obama will handle the Iranian nuclear issue with kid gloves and forget the existential threat for Israel. Shaul Mofaz, Israeli Minister of Transportation and former chief of staff, one of the candidates for primaries in the leading Kadimah Party, wrote an open letter to Obama, saying regarding the Iranian threat: "Having dedicated the past 40 years of my life to Israel's security and defense, and as someone who is very well acquainted with the regional system, I can tell you that the only language that can be used in this case is the language of strength."

Like Mofaz, many Israeli politicians met Obama in order to strengthen themselves as significant players on the domestic scene. The Democratic candidate met not only the Prime Minister but also former prime ministers and everybody who wants to be the next Israeli prime minister. He cannot be sure what positions these persons will be holding at the time of the American elections. This made his mission more difficult but also explains to some extent his balanced views on Middle East issues.

Almost everybody who met Barack Obama in Jerusalem, in Ramallah or in Sderot is convinced that Obama will be the next American president. If this comes true, the question will be raised whether he will also become a world leader who will change the path of American foreign policy. And will such a change be good for Israel or bad for Israel? His short visit to the region as presidential candidate could not answer this question but might stimulate his interest in Middle East affairs. Former head of the left-wing Meretz party, Yossi Sarid, wrote a day before Obama came to Israel: "Can it not be that, for a change, what's good for the world will also be good for the Jews, and what's good for the Jews will also be what is good for the world?"

Dr. Angelika Timm is the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation's Representative in Israel and is a regular contributor to the Advisor.

This essay appeared in the July 25, 2008, AICGS Advisor.