Fall Thunderstorms in Germany
By Elmar Sulk

It was just two days after Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit at President Bush's ranch in Crawford that Franz Müntefering, the German Minister of Labor and former SPD Chairman, resigned unexpectedly on November 13. With all his political power and experience Franz Müntefering was a keystone for the grand coalition as labor is the most important department and has the largest budget.

Within two days, the difference between Angela Merkel's successful foreign policy that has always called for a celebration - even in magazines like Der Spiegel and Stern that usually are critical of her - and the struggle on the home front have become obvious.

November in Germany means blustery weather, storms crossing the country from the western regions to Berlin; it means rain, fog and cold. Müntefering's resignation made it obvious that in political terms these conditions have reached the grand coalition. Müntefering was a key player in Merkel's efforts to uphold her claim to power. This player is now gone, and it has become more obvious than ever that because of different programs - e.g. different ideas concerning health care reform or labor market and social security policy - this right-center-left-coalition has been built on a fragile foundation. Even more now, two years after it was built, the walls of the building are beginning to shake seriously.

SPD After its Convention
The SPD's party convention in October demonstrated that the Social Democrats are eager to give up the idea of a reform policy a la Gerhard Schröder's "Agenda 2010." Partly because they think that these reforms harm elderly and unemployed people, and partly because of the increasing power of "Die Linke," former head of SPD Oskar Lafontaine's socialist party, which has strong support in East Germany. Recent polls show that the left party would get 12 percent of the vote if federal elections were held now. Kurt Beck, the SPD's re-elected chairman, has tried to win momentum for his own party and to take the wind out of Lafontaine's sails. So far, he seems to have been successful, but the collateral damage for the grand coalition has become obvious.

Newspaper headlines like "Struck vertraut der Kanzlerin nicht mehr" (Die Welt, November 14 - [SPD parliamentary group chairman] Struck no longer trusts the chancellor), or "SPD: Schonfrist für Merkel ist vorbei" (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, November 14 - SPD: Merkel's grace period is over) speak volumes about today's atmosphere and (dis)trust in the world of policy makers. After two years of constructive cooperation and collaboration, Germany's parties have entered a transition period to become more popular with the electorate and observe more closely the electoral opinion. It seems that Kurt Beck has already led his party into the election campaign.

Early Election or Constructive Vote of No Confidence?
What does this mean? Most likely, until federal elections are held in fall 2009, the next two years could become very long. Nothing in domestic policy might happen and standstill could become the coalition's hallmark.

What would be the alternative to holding on to a grand coalition? There are two options, but both are fairly unlikely.

Option one: elections. The German Basic Law provides the chancellor with the opportunity to request a vote of confidence. If the chancellor does not receive the parliament's majority, early elections could, but would not necessarily follow. Similar to Helmut Kohl in 1983 or Gerhard Schröder in 2005, Angela Merkel could walk down this path. But there are differences in the cases of Kohl and Schröder. Kohl, in October 1982, elected as chancellor by the federal parliament, used this option to give the electorate the opportunity to vote. It is for historians to decide whether it was Schröder's own initiative in 2005 or whether the then-SPD chairman and leader of the parliamentary group Franz Müntefering was the driving force. To sum it up: early elections can only be held if a chancellor asks the parliament to express a lack of confidence. In all likelihood, as she has nothing to gain from this now, Angela Merkel won't walk down this road. She won't even look for other majorities, but will stay in the grand coalition with the SPD.

Option two: constructive vote of no confidence. The parliament can express its lack of confidence in the chancellor only by electing a successor with the majority of its members. If there is someone who wants to follow this strategy, his first step would be to look for a different majority beyond the grand coalition. There are currently six parties in the German Parliament: CDU, CSU, SPD, FDP, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and "Die Linke." The three possibilities for majorities are: a) CDU, CSU, FDP, and the Green party; b) SPD, FDP, and the Green party; or c) SPD, the Green party, and "Die Linke." All of these coalitions would be very fragile from the start, and it is unclear who could make this constellation happen. Having said that, good governance with fresh ideas cannot be expected from these coalitions. In fact, in almost sixty years of Germany's history after World War II, only two politicians dared to introduce a constructive vote of no confidence. Rainer Barzel failed in 1972 and Helmut Kohl overthrew Helmut Schmidt by a vote of no confidence in 1982. And in Germany 2007, nobody will walk the walk. Only gamblers would consider it, and neither the natural scientist Angela Merkel nor the down-to-earth Kurt Beck are gamblers.

Durable Foreign Policy Success?
So the basic question, important for us on this side of the Atlantic, is what happens if there is less and less scope for action in this grand coalition? What can we expect over the next two years? What happens if "Mrs. Feelgood" (Josef Joffe's description of Angela Merkel) faces economic problems, higher inflation, increasing contributions into health care and social security systems? How about an international crisis, and, last but not least, what could Germany's contribution be to the world's security and the war on terrorism when, after the next presidential elections, a new U.S. government expects more from Europe? Well, when it comes to less important issues such as development policy, research, and education, this coalition will somehow function. In the vast field of environmental policy and on the top issue climate change Germany will remain actor number one. In foreign policy, after two very successful EU and G8 summits, Angela Merkel is a celebrity who sits next to world leaders in Heiligendamm or eats hamburgers with President Bush in Crawford. We have to see if this is permanent. Germany's problem with shrinking defense budgets could be a Webfehler (weaving defect) of a durable foreign policy success. At the latest, after the next U.S. presidential elections we will see what Germany is willing to contribute in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and maybe in Congo, Serbia and Iran.

That being said, the big problems in the "reform package," for example health care, pension reform and statutory minimum wages, are unsolved. Statutory minimum wages could become a top issue for the SPD's election campaign. These problems will stay on the agenda but in all likelihood there won't be any solution. The grand coalition is not capable of acting. Some say that there is a lack of leadership in Merkel's moderate style. This means that the legacy of this coalition, Germany's underperformance as an economic driving force, will overshadow all efforts of other countries, especially in the European Union. And here is the link from, in domestic policy terms, the lame-duck Angela Merkel to her efforts in foreign policy: an underperforming Germany is less credible. It is not able to contribute more, but less of its power to solutions in the world's diplomacy.

Weather records indicate that there are not only heavy fall storms but also spring storms in Germany. We can conclude that Chancellor Merkel will survive the fall troubles. But there will be two very important elections in the Länder of Hesse and Lower Saxony in January 2008. It is unclear whether Angela Merkel's calculation is still correct that her party will be in a position of strength and the SPD in a position of weakness in the spring. Very important players such as the German industrial organizations have already stopped supporting her. The German media is becoming more and more critical of the chancellor. At the latest, after the elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony, the spring storms could reach the Federal Chancellor's office in Berlin.

Elmar Sulk is currently the Senior Strategist for Lincoln Park PR. Prior to that, he worked as a spokesperson for German industry in Berlin and before that was the Head of Press and Public Relations for IBIS ACAM Holding and Co, an international service company. Elmar spent close to eight years working in political and public relations strategy for the German Parliament, first as a speech writer and then as a Senior Staff Member to the Minister for Research and Technology, Dr. Paul Krueger.

This essay appeared in the November 30, 2007, AICGS Advisor.