A Novelty in German Politics
By Elmar Sulk

Incumbent president Horst Köhler is running for a second term despite the unclear outcome of the upcoming election

The German Federal President Horst Köhler - also well known in Washington as the former Director of the International Monetary Fund - announced on May 22 that he is seeking a second five-year term to serve as Germany's highest-ranking politician. The president will be elected in May of next year. Köhler, who is a member of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, was forced to make clear that he is running for another term after the discussion within the Social Democratic Party (SPD) about nominating its own candidate gained momentum. Finally, on Memorial Day in the United States, four days after the incumbent's announcement, the SPD nominated Ms. Gesine Schwan; it is her second nomination. She was the party's candidate in May 2004, and her rival candidate was - Horst Köhler.

Two novelties accompany this development in German politics: first, the incumbent is running for a second term even though the outcome of the election is unclear, and second, the (two) partners of the ruling coalition were unable to agree on a common candidate. With the change in Germany's party landscape, not many can keep track of the situation, and SPD chairman Kurt Beck seems to be chased more by his own party than he is leading the hunt for the top prize - the Federal Chancellor's office. A discussion has already commenced as to whether he is the right candidate for the office of the chancellor or whether Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier should run instead.

About German Superdelegates
So how do Germans elect their Federal President? The German constitution, the Grundgesetz, states in article 54 that a Federal Convention must meet every five years to elect the President. This is the one and only task of this institution. The Federal Convention consists of all members of the German parliament plus the same number of representatives elected by the state parliaments, proportional to how many seats each party has in the parliament. The state parliaments often select not only politicians but also businesspeople or celebrities as well. These state representatives do not even have to be party members but, although these German "superdelegates" are free in their decision, the outcome of the convention's election is usually pretty clear in advance. For example, in 1999 Johannes Rau obtained 690 votes out of 1,333, and in 1994 Roman Herzog received 696 votes out of 1,320. In 1989, when Richard von Weizsaecker was reelected for a second term, no one even ran against him.

But things are not so clear cut this time. Currently, the Christian Democrats, together with Bavaria's conservative Christian Social party (CSU) and the Free Democrats (FDP), have a majority in the Federal Convention. But Bavaria has a state election in September this year. If the CSU receives a smaller share of the votes, then their majority is gone. It has never happened before that the incumbent seeks a second term in such an unstable environment, so Horst Köhler is playing a risky game - and Angela Merkel is in it as well. But is she 'in it to win it'? Can she grab a second term as chancellor in the federal election, which follows six months after Horst Köhler does or does not get reelected?

The German Federal President is far less powerful than his counterparts in France or the U.S. If you want change in domestic or foreign policy, you have to address Ms. Merkel's Chancellery and not Mr. Köhler's Office of the Federal President. But for some reason, the discussion of who will serve the country as its next president has been dominating the media headlines for the last couple of weeks. Köhler, who is 65, was hand-picked by the then-opposition leader Angela Merkel in 2004 to become the successor of Johannes Rau (SPD). It is conventional wisdom for the observers of German politics that the election of the Federal President has always been a harbinger of how stable the majorities in the German parliament (which elects the Chancellor) will be. For instance, when the SPD's Gustav Heinemann was elected as Federal President in 1969, this was the beginning of the end of Chancellor Kurt-Georg Kiesinger's time in office. Half a year later, SPD leader Willy Brandt was able to establish his coalition with the liberals.

Let's talk about the picture in 2008/9: in Goethe's drama "Faust," Gretchen asks what Faust thinks about faith and religion ("Wie hast du's mit der Religion"); Faust tries to deflect the question. The Gretchenfrage (crucial question) for Social Democrats is now "Wie hast du's mit der Linken?" - what do you think about cooperating with the Left Party?

Strategies that Cannot Work
It could be very rewarding to take a closer look at the currently unfolding political discussion in Germany, since, in all likelihood, this defining moment marks the beginning of the end of the grand coalition between the CDU and SPD. Well, you won't see a break-up of this coalition, but rather an increase of coalition infighting and as a result less policy-making. Although Chancellor Merkel is trying very hard to keep the coalition together until the scheduled election in the fall of 2009, everybody can see that there is not much trust left between the CDU and SPD. The grand coalition's policies towards health or retirement insurance, their differences in the minimum wage debate, and the discussion about higher or lower taxes demonstrate that this coalition is grinding to a halt. And on top of that, we now see that the two parties that work together in the German Parliament are cheering for two opposing candidates in the Federal Convention. As a result, and as there aren't really other options for Ms. Merkel for building an alternative coalition, the death wake might take the next fifteen months.

Kurt Beck's strategy to nominate his own candidate was not just an avoidable accident. Time and again, in a system which now has five parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, the Greens and the Left Party) the SPD has struggled to find a viable path to prevent the rise of the Left Party. The success of this party seems to be the result of a sustainable trend, even in the former West German states. It is not clear whether all Social Democrats would vote for a social democratic candidate if this candidate could only be elected with votes from the Left Party. In Hesse, the SPD failed to get its candidate elected as minister president because one of its parliamentary group's members simply said "No" to such an option. It will be very interesting to see if all the Social Democrats support Gesine Schwan, or if she can only get elected with help from the Left Party. Some, like the former federal minister for labor Wolfgang Clement, said that they feel very uncomfortable with SPD party leader Kurt Beck's decision to nominate a candidate against the incumbent. In Germany's important TV news magazine "heute-journal," Mr. Beck tried to convince viewers that "[I] would never ever want to be elected German Chancellor" with support of the Left Party. But is he trustworthy? This question has been asked by a vast majority of German voters in the past couple of weeks, and given the fact that Kurt Beck's reputation reached an all time low of 20 percent in May 2008, not many believe him.

Having said that, in the Federal Convention of 2009, there will also be some members of the far right Neo-Nazi parties NPD and DVU And of course neither the incumbent nor Ms. Schwan want to be elected with the help of their votes.

Unresolved Domestic Policy Issues
Horst Köhler can count on his good reputation in Germany. Although this is technically not an obstacle to electing somebody else, it is something the Social Democrats cannot completely ignore. Kurt Beck would be a really poor party leader if he did not listen to the people's opinion.

And here is an interesting point: when it comes to domestic policy issues in times of standstill and no reforms, Germany, as a shrinking and aging society, desperately needs more change and flexibility. In his announcement, published May 22, the president informed the German people that "Germany is better off now than a few years ago... We have to continue on this path of innovation." He doesn't need to be more specific than that. Everybody got the message - Germany needs more and better reforms than the German Parliament has delivered to date. Mr. Köhler seems to be the only Christian Democrat who is still pushing for a reform agenda in labor market, health care, and retirement funds issues. On Tuesday this week he demanded a more transparent tax law. Whether or not his party listens, however, is a different question entirely. And we on this side of the Atlantic should be even more concerned, as an underperforming Germany with lots of unsolved problems is not able to contribute more, but rather less of its power to solutions in the world's diplomacy.

Elmar Sulk is Senior Strategist at Lincoln Park Public Relations and a regular contributor to the Advisor.

This essay appeared in the May 30, 2008, AICGS Advisor.