The Tragedy of Merkel's Chancellorship?
By Wolfgang Stock

In early December, Angela Merkel presided over one of the most boring and meaningless CDU Parteitag Germany has seen in many years. It could have been an important one, given it was at mid-term, the impressive legislative record of "her" grand coalition, three important forthcoming state elections, and most importantly, final debate and vote on the Grundsatzprogramm, only the third in sixty years of CDU history. But the party delegates had no desire for long debates; they went home earlier than planned. Why argue over your party's course for the next twenty years when you are fed up with the present? And the party grassroots in Merkel's CDU are definitely fed up with their present situation - feeling constrained in a grand coalition.

Everything is different in Germany these days. Angela Merkel is Germany's first female political leader. She's heading only the second grand coalition Germany has ever had since 1949. She is among the most popular politicians ever polled there, but her grand coalition is heavily disliked, and so are political parties; their membership lists are getting shorter and shorter. And election turnout is shrinking - the Sachsen-Anhalt state elections last year had a negative record of only 44.2 percent of the eligible voters turning out.

True, in her first two years as chancellor, Merkel has a remarkable record of having paved the way out of the deadlock of the European Union, reviving the severely damaged relationship between the U.S and Germany, and giving human rights a voice in Moscow, Beijing, and Africa. Her style is comprised of moderation in public with strong steering in the background. It has helped her to achieve impressive legislative results domestically: the grand coalition drastically reformed the pension system, repaired the health system, and fundamentally beefed up the system of family support after childbirth. Furthermore, the grand coalition reformed Germany's time-worn federal system. With feminine charm and many talents, Merkel steered clear of scandals of any sort, pacifying hardliners in both the socialists' camp as well as her own. And she presided over a remarkable economic upswing. This is why she has become so popular.

But there is a growing number of critics, not only amongst foreign journalists ("Lost Chancellor" - Newsweek, "Hemorrhaging" - Economist). Conservatives and liberals in her party miss a clear profile; they miss the reformist approach Merkel embraced until the election night of September 18, 2005. In recent months, and especially at her Parteitag, Merkel appeared to be ultra-populistic: she was wooing leftist voters by embracing the SPD's idea of a minimum wage and aggressively attacking the growth of managers' compensation. And while trying to court conservative voters with the new Grundsatzprogramm, Merkel herself urged the delegates at the Parteitag to accept a u-turn in stem cell legislation - causing an unusual uproar amongst German Christians, bishops and laymen alike.

What has happened to the party chairwoman that, four years ago at the Parteitag in Leipzig, seemed to be a radical reformer? The fact is that Merkel has had to become a Realpolitiker since. She did believe in harsh reforms but was unable to find electoral support for her strategy in the general election of 2005 - to put it mildly. Only one third of those who went to the polls (the second lowest turnout ever) were convinced of her recipes. It was a miracle that the CDU did not topple her having delivered one of the worst election results in decades then, in 2005. And it took a long time until the CDU/CSU and SPD formed together in the unloved grand coalition. The only alternative to it would have been a coalition of the SPD with PDS (now "The Left") and the Greens. And "red-red-green" still is the only alternative.

Using the lowest common denominator in the grand coalition, Merkel is trying to survive in power, trying to "prevent the worst" and - most importantly - bring her party into a pole position for the next general election. This, in her strategy, is only possible by steering a populist course - even if it betrays one's own beliefs. Therefore she is hijacking popular subjects from the left - the role of women and mothers, climate, stem cell research, managers' pay - and is using them perfectly.

Nobody knows when this next general election will be; fall of 2009 at the latest, maybe earlier. If either of the two formerly-big parties in the grand coalition believes it could win a majority, new elections will take place. Few people expect real decisions to be made until then, even if it takes two years. This is why the CDU-Parteitag was so boring: although Germany is governed by the most popular CDU chancellor ever, many of the party's sympathizers do not agree with her coalition's policy output. But they cannot, on the other hand, campaign against these unloved policies - for they are locked in this grand coalition.

And this might the tragedy of Angela Merkel: being extremely popular and her party commanding 40 percent support in polls - but not more - she seems unable to round up a majority of voters. Without such majority, she might be ousted in general elections soon. Knowing this, and having learned of the aversion of German voters against reforms, she will never again be campaigning on the reform ticket. Instead, she will pick up socialist mainstream ideas as much as necessary to deprive the SPD and the Greens of the strategic majority they might easily build together with the former communists.

However, there is a "but": Angela Merkel's greatest asset has always been that people have underestimated her. The above conclusion - that her fate might be to be voted out of office by 2009 or earlier, although being the most popular German Chancellor - is obvious. But one should never underestimate Angela Merkel. She might well be surprising all of us again - and stay in power for a long time.

Wolfgang Stock is professor of journalism at the Gustav-Siewerth-Academy, Waldshut, a lecturer at Europa-University Viadrina (Frankfurt), and managing director of a communications consultancy in Berlin. He also is a frequent participant in AICGS events and workshops.

This essay appeared in the December 14, 2007, AICGS Advisor.