A Weakening President
By Alexander Privitera

This summer has not been a good one for the White House and fans around the world are scratching their heads in quiet disbelief. What is happening in Washington? Is Barack Obama just another politician or is America not ready for the change that the president is supposed to bring about?

Just over a year ago, when then-presidential candidate Barack Obama toured the world and rallied hundreds of thousands of adoring Berliners, America and Europe seemed finally to have found a common groove. There was a sense across the Atlantic that the U.S. was realizing that becoming a bit more European wasn't such a bad thing after all.

When the financial crisis hit, Obama seemed to be the right man for the new times. He was not responsible for the unraveling of the financial markets, he wasn't cozying up with the reviled Wall Street masters of the universe, and perhaps he would even accept precious European advice.

Most German and French politicians felt they knew what the crisis meant. They felt vindicated about their course of action. After the fall of unilateral, imperial foreign policy, another American icon had now been struck, the so-called Anglo-American, unbridled financial capitalism. The scale of the sudden crisis of the American economic model seemed unprecedented.

German finance minister Peer Steinbrück and even the careful Chancellor Angela Merkel couldn't hide their gloating. Germany would emerge stronger after the crisis, they predicted. The country already had the economic model of the future, the so called social market economy, the same forty years old system the "Anglo-Saxons" had been telling the Germans to dismantle for the past fifteen years.

In essence the new message coming out of the German government was: We are well equipped, all we have to do is to wait for the storm to pass. The coalition even resisted passing the big stimulus package that the U.S. government deemed necessary. In the end, as the economy almost came to a standstill, the government was forced to act under pressure from German public opinion. But only weeks after passing the biggest stimulus bill in the Eurozone, a senior German official told me the government never thought stimulus would make much of a difference.

Instead Berlin kept a wary eye on inflation and mounting deficits. America, it seemed, was trying to get out of its hole by doing what had caused the tumble in the first place: piling up debt. In doing so the new Obama administration was not any different from its predecessor. Germany was not going to follow.

Chancellor Merkel never shared the enthusiasm public opinion still has for the new president. In fact, her relationship with Obama took a while to warm up. But as Merkel never looked for confrontation with the old Bush White House, she was certainly not going to pick a fight with the new Obama administration over economic policies. Despite the new display of self confidence, Berlin is not delusional. The German government well knows that despite all the talk about a relative decline of the superpower, the U.S. is still capable of speeding up recovery or of slowing it down. As they wait for growth to kick in, German officials are closely watching Obama's next steps. What they have seen so far is not entirely reassuring. Berlin still fears that mounting budget deficits could lead to a serious crisis of the dollar, reduce exports to the U.S., stoke inflation, and therefore undermine recovery.

Even on financial reform the picture is not rosy. Germans and continental Europeans in general largely believe that if no new tough rules are enforced soon, the U.S. financial world will go back to business as usual. A few cosmetic changes won't alter the nature of the game, leaving a system in place with the very same rules or absence thereof, which brought about the near collapse of capitalism as we know it.

Last but not least: Germans should start asking themselves what the current debate on health care in the U.S. means to them. So far they have not. The start of the national election campaign keeps media and politicians focused on domestic events. There is limited appetite for the minutiae of the overheated U.S. debate.

But by the time the German polls close on September 27, the political landscape in Washington could have taken a dramatic turn.

On health care President Obama is testing the limits of his presidency. Suddenly he appears to be vulnerable, ill-prepared for the challenge. Some troubling domestic and international implications loom on the horizon.

Obama is rapidly discovering that despite some lingering self doubt triggered by the Iraq mess and the economic crisis, most Americans are not prepared to follow him on every journey he wants to take them on. With health care the President seems to have touched a hard core of American belief that cannot be easily wiped out in the name of reform. Suddenly he seems to be out of touch.

In essence the polls are telling Barack Obama that he does not have a mandate to overhaul America, to hastily grow the role of government and pile up new mountains of debt. The change most Americans wanted was getting rid of the Bush era. Obama merely has a mandate to fix what's been broken.

To be fair to the president, that is exactly how he has tried to frame the debate. He has blamed the previous administration for virtually all things that are wrong with America. He has repeatedly explained to his fellow citizens that everything from the U.S. standing in the world to its economic and financial architecture to its health care system is in essence broken and needs fixing. But instead of triggering individual can-do spirit, his attempts so far have created malaise. The health care debate is just the tip of the iceberg. A growing number of Americans seem to be asking: How come that everything that was part of a successful way of life just yesterday is now to be changed? Last time the country plunged into a collective depression was in the 1970s, after the Vietnam War, Watergate, and hyperinflation. It took a decade to recover.

From a European perspective the danger now is that the American consumer will remain uneasy about the direction of the country and stay on strike. The desire to buy imported goods would suffer, so jeopardizing the European recovery.

Also, a weakened president, pushed around by the different wings of his own party, could inspire challengers abroad. If Obama retreats on his most significant domestic project, what would he do in the face of an unexpected international crisis?

Seen from Europe and from Germany in particular, there are a series of flashpoints that come to mind. For example: what if Iran made giant leaps towards developing a nuclear weapon? The U.S. offer of talks has not had any effect so far. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the U.S. will not wait for a response forever. She signaled that mid-September would be the deadline. What is the next step? More offers or more threats? These tactics have already failed in the past. What if the Israelis lose patience and take things into their own hands by attacking Iranian nuclear facilities? What about Russia? Could Moscow be tempted to test the White House?

Last but not least: What about Afghanistan? The surge has yet to alter the direction that war is taking. On the contrary, the situation in the country seems to be deteriorating. One of the U.S.' staunchest allies, the UK government, is under intense pressure to withdraw or at least to rethink the Western approach. The German government, which has tried to stay on the sidelines of that conflict and keep its troops out of harm's way, has observed as German soldiers have increasingly been involved in firefights with the Taliban. It is only a matter of time before Obama's war of necessity turns into a contentious topic between allies. Merkel or any other German leader would have a hard time staying the course if the situation continues to deteriorate while the U.S. president is stuck in the Washington swampland.

Despite his coolness Obama must realize that the domestic political debate in the U.S. is not about health care anymore. It is about his leadership. Perhaps the new president could learn a few things from Angela Merkel. Most Germans still wonder what she stands for. At the same time they think she knows what she is doing. She may be one of the most boring campaigners ever seen, but she knows a few things about power. She has learned that the most dangerous challenges usually come from within your own party. She has quietly and effectively managed to sideline all challengers within her own ranks.

Maybe Obama should start doing the same. If he doesn't, he will most likely lose much more than just the debate on health care.

Alexander Privitera is a news anchor for the German television station N24 and has frequently participated in AICGS events.

This essay appeared in the August 24, 2009, AICGS Advisor.