Will We Get it Right This Time?
How the Europeans See the U.S. Elections
By Rüdiger Lentz

The U.S. elections have been a hot topic in Europe since 2000.Then, for the first time, it looked like Europeans positioned and engaged themselves in taking sides in an American election - though in a very different way than the Americans. In 2000, Bush vs. Gore: Europe would have voted overwhelmingly for Gore. Not only was he well-known, but he was "so green," so international, and so much more likeable in the eyes of Europeans, particularly when compared with this gung-ho world sheriff from Texas.

The next election, in 2004, held the same picture: the overwhelming popular European vote would have been cast for Kerry. His French relatives - ooh la la! - and his multilingual and multi-billionaire wife drew European raves, but alas another defeat. And this time around, Bush even managed to win the popular vote, which, to this day, no one in Germany and Europe has ever understood.

And, now, on to the third election. This time Europe and Germany again are placing their bets on either Obama or Clinton, and the Republicans are completely off the screen. "McCain who?" one could ask if one were to read only European or German newspapers or watch TV in Europe. That there is a Republican candidate out there who has a good chance to win the White House for the Republicans for the third time in a row has not yet seeped into Europe's mind.

How come Europe's and, especially, Germany's public perception of what an American president should be is so very much shaped by idealistic beliefs and wishful thinking? Let me try to explain: Europeans want to see U.S. presidents acting in accordance to their visions of an America living up to its ideals .They expect peace-embracing politicians who always give diplomacy a chance, prefer multilateralism to unilateralism, listen to their allies instead of bullying them around, use military means only as a very last resort and only after consultation with their allies.

And that's exactly not what we have seen during the last several years under the Bush I and Bush II administrations. That explains why there has and still does exist a deep rift between the public aspirations of Europeans, and Germans especially, concerning U.S. policies as opposed to what we have gotten and might still get in the future.

Concerning U.S. politics, we want to read or watch what we wish for, meaning that our expectations dictate our media consumption and also our perception of U.S. policies. In the case of John McCain, since nobody wants McCain - or any Republican - to become the next president, he is neither on our public radar screen nor is his candidacy taken very seriously.

But what do we really know about John McCain?

As far as the American electorate is concerned, they know a lot about McCain. Mostly because he still is and has been a very respected senator and public figure for several decades.

• He is a "war hero," which he is heavily exploiting for his campaign at the moment.
• He is a strategic and military expert with lots of close personal ties to the strategic community in Asia and Europe. But he is seen as more connected to the old Cold War establishment than the younger leadership generation.
• He is one of the architects of the "campaign finance reform" which made him highly unpopular among conservative Republicans.
• He is against torture and wants to close Guantanamo. This is. by the way, one of the only topics where he is in unison with the Democratic candidates.
• He was against Bush's tax reform but has now hopped on the bandwagon and wants to extend Bush's tax policies - this is the price he had to pay to the Republican party establishment in return for their support.
• He is one of the co-architects of the troop surge in Iraq which, at least until now, works in his favor. But that might turn into an Achilles heel for him if the situation in Iraq deteriorates in the coming months.
• He is committed to a long-term U.S. presence in Iraq - often comparing it to the U.S. presence in Europe and Germany after World War II.
• He is a free-trader in the general sense, but not very specific as far as economics as a whole are concerned. Another of his weak points!
• He is tough on Russia. He even wants them excluded from the G-8 summits if Putin doesn't liberalize his autocratic system. He is even tougher on Iran, where he advocates the military option even more aggressively than the current Administration.
• He is an advocate of a stronger NATO and its increased participation on a global scale. Whereas the EU and its military policy coordination is concerned, he is more critical and skeptical than supportive.
• He is is seen by a majority as no clear departure from Bush. More than likely he will be more of the same, only with a lighter touch.

Now let's run his stances on these topics against the European/German checklist of what a large majority of Europeans expect from the next U.S. president:

• "War Hero" - nothing which really resonates with Europeans or Germans. Quite the contrary! Vietnam brings back bad recollections and war heroes are not very popular in Germany, period. Grade: F
• Being a strategic and military expert? Not kept in high esteem as well, sounds like more like an old Cold War warrior. Grade: C-
• His fight for higher ethical standards in politics - Grade: B+
• His stance against torture and for closing Guantanamo - Grade: A
• His position on keeping Bush's tax cuts - Grade: C
• Having been for the troop surge and his long-term commitment in Iraq - not very popular in Europe and possibly a major point of a future conflicts of interest. Grade: F, another one.
• Being a free-trader but no clear concept on the current financial crisis and the economic imbalances. Grade: C
• Tough on Russia and Iran - another area of future conflicts, especially concerning the energy security question and the military option on Iran. Grade: D-
• Stronger NATO but with a clear indication of asking for larger European burden-sharing and his commitment to keep the U.S. dominant within the NATO alliance. Grade: C-

If we were to add this up, everybody who is familiar with the U.S. educational system knows that the result of this checklist is very clear: this candidate has failed. And because he is too old already, he will not get another chance to take and pass the exam again. But that is "our" thinking. And it very well may be that Europe wakes up on November 5 and the headlines will tell them that McCain is the next president of the United States.

Then we, the media, once again will have the problem of explaining something to our fellow citizens which we saw coming or, at least, had to acknowledge as being possible, but which was considered unthinkable in Europe's or Germany's public perception.

Rüdiger Lentz is Washington Bureau Chief for Deutsche Welle and is a frequent participant in AICGS events.

This text was originally given as a speech at a joint AICGS-Friederich Naumann Stiftung event on "The German Media's Perspectives on the Candidates," and appeared in the May 30, 2008, AICGS Advisor.