The Message from Düsseldorf
By Dr. Karl-Rudolf Korte

The campaign for the next Bundestag election, as a general rule, always begins in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). NRW is in fact quantitatively a small Bundestag election itself, with its 13 million eligible voters. But above all, qualitatively NRW has a seismographic character. Here the first social-liberal coalition was initiated, before it ventured into the national government in 1969. Here the Greens successfully banded together with Rau's SPD, which motivated Schröder to pursue the same alliance for the national government a few years later. Since May 22, 2005, thoughts of political farewell can also be connected to NRW. The last red-green state government was voted out of office. The Greens are no longer present in any state government; they are an opposition party in all states and therefore powerless in the Bundesrat. The SPD has not only achieved its worst result since 1954, but also lost its base camp with NRW. The SPD now has a marginal size in a state where it had built itself into a hegemonic position from 1980 to 1995.

The SPD owes the maximal mobilization of its insecure voters to the crisis of traditional industries That is gone forever. So the SPD is no longer anchored in the quasi-political realm. It no longer functions as a union party, with multifunctionaries in the workers' councils as on-site caretakers. When the SPD still tries this, the scope is extremely limited. The SPD has lost its connection to its surroundings; it has lost touch with the attitudes of its core voters. It is no longer a grassroots party, as the CSU in Bavaria still exemplifies it. The politics of the reform agenda have left behind mental holes for the social democratic voters. One fifth of all members have left the SPD since 1998. In the meantime the CDU has become the party with the most members in NRW. After three lost elections since 2005 (for the European Parliament, local government, and state government) the members of the SPD in NRW are filled with depression concerning the upcoming Bundestag election. There is no longer a traditional "deep in the heart" feeling left to awake. The erosion and alienation processes have shaken the long-run campaign abilities of the SPD.

Conversely it should not be concluded that a new hegemonic position for the CDU has arisen. The era of structured majorities is clearly over. The clear victory of black-yellow does not automatically mean the beginning of a series or a nostalgic bridge to the victories in the 1960s. The strategic message reads completely different: the CDU has been successful in achieving considerable gains in large urban areas and in fighting for the status of a new "workers' party." They already had the religious core voters from Paderborn to Arnsberg behind them. The state election brought in that respect earthquake-like shocks to the party competition that radiate to Berlin. This alone would have been enough to disconcert Berlin. To distract from this result, historically bad for the SPD, and to emerge in an offensive position, 24 minutes after the closing of the polls Franz Müntefering (Chairman of the SPD-parliamentary group in the German parliament) launched the next surprise rocket: early national elections! For a little while the SPD was therefore successful in achieving leadership in opinion and distracting from the disaster in Düsseldorf. Because new Minister President Rüttgers celebrated too long in the party headquarters in Düsseldorf, the corresponding pictures of jubilation from the state parliament were missing. Müntefering prevented the Union's delirium of joy on the Rhine from being televised. The enthusiasm was there, but according to the laws of "excitement democracy" and the scenarios of "scared communities," after 6:24 PM it was only of secondary importance. NRW was, in light of the subject of new elections, again at the forefront - a double shock, that, together with May 22, will make history regardless of whether it actually leads to new elections in 2005.

In addition to the telegenic, spectacular events, the state election has also heralded a new environment for party competition. It appears to have changed the conditions for success in political competition. Helpless calm combined with elementary fears of a crash dominate in many places, above all in the middle class. The open social protests against the Hartz reforms abated long ago. The horror reports about unemployment figures lead to a ritualized exchange of blows between the government and opposition. A clear majority of citizens therefore display a pessimistic perspective, believing in a clear deterioration of the situation. Lethargic, passionless, and disillusioned, the citizens apparently surrender to their inevitable fate. Only minorities are still convinced of the competence of the political enterprise or even of political actors to solve problems. The majority cultivates a cynical contempt for politics. Politics seems to have lost its competence.

In such motionless times , the citizens choose political parties on election day according to damage limitation. They expect real improvements neither from the government in office nor from the opposition. The new government in Düsseldorf has not promised the voters anything concrete, other than a feeling of turnaround to a better situation. Competent caretakers and fair and reliable governing were the campaign proposals that the voters honored. In the tone of a new practicality a "romanticism of victimhood" has spread out, that expects improvement through change. Nothing more. Those who forgot about reality or were silent about problems were not elected, but rather those who promised nothing besides the impression they could make it better. Especially the two nationally televised debates displayed this result as a dilemma of modern politics - particularly at the level of the states - namely, to know almost everything but to hardly be able to do anything. Either the financial binds are so extreme that no room for action remains, or responsibilities are absent, having migrated to the local communities, to the national level, or to Brussels. In this respect the election result from Düsseldorf is not a punishment for Red-Green resulting from a wave of anger, but it is also not a euphoric departure signal for a new government. Governments and opposition in times of economic tightness show the fact that allocation conflicts are no longer reconciled traditionally over increases. The voters feel this. Therefore they no longer reward those that appear as fighters for social accomplishments. This at least is true for the broad masses of majority-forming voters. The exchange of benefits for hardships has little charm but makes real sense. The scarce commodity of political trust will be allocated differently on election day as was the case a few years ago. In this respect the campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia and the election result display a clear shift in focus. In the case that new elections for the German Bundestag in 2005 occur, this will remain the most important melody, so to speak, the refrain from Düsseldorf.

Meanwhile, the scenarios of the parties are easy to see. The small parties, above all the Greens, will have an election in which they fight for their existence. Over the years they have grown into a function-party which has now lost their majority-forming function. They will not emerge in the election camp of the SPD. So the Greens are doomed to an opposition campaign, to mobilize their core voters, independent and reckless at the same time. The SPD stands under observation from three fronts: the Greens will try to uncover the old thinking of the SPD, the new and the old leftists (WASG/PDS) castigate the social unbalance of the SPD and the black-yellow camp will seize upon the pent-up motives of the voters to vote out the government. There is confidence combined with programmatic blurriness. The parties of the middle will, however, in the tone of a new pragmatism, no longer overdo it with promises. Not a bad perspective with which to win back the trust of the voters.

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Professor Dr. Dr. Karl-Rudolf Korte is Professor of political science at the University of Duisburg-Essen and a former DAAD/AICGS Research Fellow.
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This essay appeared in the June 30, 2005 AICGS Advisor. It was translated from German by Andrew Miner. To access the German original, please click here.