Stoiber's Successors
By Prof. Dr. Karl-Rudolf Korte

The CSU executive leadership has agreed to allow for a crucial vote to be held concerning the party's chair at the early party summit in September 2007. The competitors are: Bavarian Minister of Economic Affairs Huber (60 years) and the Federal Minister of Economic Affairs and Consumer Interests Seehofer (57 years). Beckstein, currently Bavarian Minister of the Interior, is to be elected as Stoiber's successor as Bavarian Prime Minster by the Bavarian state parliament ultimately after the CSU party summit. What appear to be calm waters hold in fact every facet of intrigue. Looking at the age differences of the candidates, it becomes apparent that this is not a generational overhaul of the CSU. Seehofer therefore announced that if elected he would encourage a radical rejuvenation of the CSU leadership. The power vacuum left in the CSU by the Bavarian prime minister also has its ripple effects on a federal level since the CSU is a member of the Grand Coalition governing in Berlin.

Stoiber has governed Bavaria for seventeen years and the CSU is surely one of Europe's most successful Volksparteien (People's Parties). A war of succession was to be expected considering the length of Stoiber's tenure. His farewell is not voluntary - as was documented recently at the lengthy party and state faction summit in Wildbad Kreuth. Over months his decline showed all the political science criteria typical for a change in power: The erosion of power became evident in the lack of inner-party support. Recently, a previously unknown district administrator openly advocated a replacement of Stoiber, after she made public that the state chancellery had investigated her private life - an advance for which she enjoyed great internal party-support. A decline in directing policy making became evident, although the CSU holds a two third majority in the state parliament. The CSU-faction in the state parliament did not feel as if it was being taken seriously and allowed for a stalemate over a law concerning store-opening hours. Deficits in communication were measurable as public and publicized opinion turned against Stoiber. While his levels of approval are still high compared to those of other state prime ministers, for the first time it seemed possible that the CSU could fail to reach the absolute majority in the upcoming state elections in 2008. Adding to the slump in the polls was also the visible decline of Stoiber's sense of political reality. Since his hasty break with responsibilities in Berlin (Stoiber had wanted to become 'super minister' and then suddenly declined to enter the cabinet in the midst of negotiations for the Grand Coalition), which was considered treason to Bavaria within the CSU, his policies vis-à-vis the federal government have somewhat lost the characteristics of rationality. The levels of isolation became evident as Stoiber recently had to reassign some of his closest advisors (power brokers). Considering this evidence of loss of power, it was only a matter of time until Stoiber would give up.

The problems of succession extend to Berlin. Primarily, the CSU - already the smallest partner in the coalition - remains strategically weakened. The chancellor will thus be lacking a strong partner in negotiations with the SPD until September, as the CSU is currently causing a vacuum in the coalition caucus. Moreover, the CDU is very interested in a strong CSU, as Germany's South is an important powerbase of the CDU-CSU Union. If the Union performs badly in federal elections in the South, under no circumstances would they be able to reach a majority on the federal level. The CSU is not only a sister party, but a Siamese twin. An ailing CSU would affect the entire symmetry of power and the Union's capacity for a majority as a whole.

In principle, the decision for a succession struggle between Seehofer and Huber speaks for an improvement of inner party democracy. But in a democracy with intense media coverage it will take a long time to reach a resolution. The party has to weather an internal election campaign stretched over six months. Internally the CSU has always had a great ability to revitalize itself and the centers of power inside the party have monitored each other closely. However, generally this has taken place outside of the public realm. Henceforth the CSU will be shaped by a public dispute between two people whose policies do not differ much. But considering the individuals, the differences could not be greater. Huber is a renowned finance expert with wide support among members of the Bavarian parliament. He has assumed the role of the caring functionary. Seehofer has excellent contact with the party's base, cannot be disciplined and radiates independence. He is a habitual rebel and extremely populist on welfare issues while considered a Bavarian Kennedy on family issues. If, in the end, only Seehofer's and Huber's statements during the next party summit count, Huber would not stand a chance. But until then many bullets will be launched in this Bavarian intrigue.

This essay appeared in the February 16, 2007 AICGS Advisor in German. It was translated by Constantin Sprengel. For the German version of this article, please click here.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies.