Election Day, Payday
By Stefan Kornelius

The election in Iraq has earned George W. Bush a great dividend.

The elation over the Iraqi Election Day was almost greater in Washington than it was in Baghdad. The participation and the near stoical courage of the Iraqi people in the face of the car bombs have strengthened the American president in several ways.

Bush is triumphant now because he, against the advice of half the world as well as weighty domestic voices, held fast to the timetable. Bush is triumphant because his near incomprehensible optimism was rewarded. And Bush is triumphant because after this Election Day, countless options are now open to him: domestically with a possible plan for an exit strategy; in the Arab world with the domino effect that the democracy experiment might trigger; and vis-à-vis the allies, who will be hard pressed now to maintain their total refusal to help with the rebuilding of Iraq.

All these are formidable assets, which accrue to the American president thanks to the Iraqi voters. The experience of the first four years, however, teaches that the president will not necessarily handle this political capital wisely. But even here one must acknowledge his ability to learn: Bush will soon visit Europe, to ally himself with the former allies. And Secretary of State Rice is leaving for the Middle East, where a true renaissance of the peace process is on the horizon.

But much as Bush deserves recognition for his brinkmanship, there is no reason to go overboard. The election will not banish the terror in Iraq or the menace of global terrorism. While the bombs in Iraq do also target the occupation forces, they are primarily meant to shake the stability and cohesion of the artificial state structure. The Islamic terror seeks out weakened states because it hopes that its ideas of law and how to live can be most easily realized there. Even after the election, Iraq is not nearly stable enough to withstand these attacks. Therefore, the country will continue to need the American troops to maintain at least a hint of security and avert the collapse of the state.

It would be especially disastrous if George W. Bush now became convinced of the success of his doctrine of the democracy-endowing preventive war and began applying it on a grand scale. One election does not a democracy make and a war does not become legitimate simply because its illegitimate, baseless rationale fades away. After Election Day, better days are - presumably - in store for Iraq and its people. While George W. Bush did free the country from Saddam Hussein's dictatorship and cruel whims, he has so far been unable to fulfill the promise of a better life. By means of the successful election experiment, the United States have now brought a glimmer of hope to Iraq. Two years after the invasion, it was high time.

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This article appeared in German in the Süddeutsche Zeitung on February 2, 2005, and in the February 10, 2005, AICGS Advisor. It was translated into English by Sarah Fichter.

For the original German version, please click here.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies.