An Election “On the Razor’s Edge”
By Dr. Richard Kiessler
 

The election in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the most populous state of the German Federal Republic, is the only election in Germany this year. However, at the same time, it might be one of the most momentous. On May 9, 13 million voters will decide whether Chancellor Angela Merkel will be able to continue governing relatively uninterrupted in Berlin, or if the checks and balances will be reorganized in what could restrict the German government's ability to act.

The CDU-FDP coalition of Christian Democrats and Liberals, which has been in office in Düsseldorf since 2005, wanted to be a blueprint for Berlin. It ended the thirty-nine-year domination of the SPD (which had been in a coalition with the Green Party since 1995) and won the elections, after the then-red-green government of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder had drastically lost approval. After the NRW-defeat, Schröder accelerated the elections for the next Bundestag - since then, Berlin has been governed under Merkel, at first by a grand coalition of CDU and SPD and since 2009 by a coalition of CDU and FDP.

However, the coalition partners, originally the 'partners of choice,' have had more than a bumpy start, especially since the smaller but ever more confident FDP has disappointed the voters with unattainable and unrealistic expectations. Particularly with the promised tax reductions, but also with the ineptitude of the FDP vice-chancellor and foreign minister Guido Westerwelle, voter opinion surveys have fallen dramatically. Ironically, this negative trend at the federal level has now turned against NRW Minister-President Jürgen Rüttgers: His black-yellow coalition will probably not be feasible again after this election. Instead, there are chances for a comeback of the red-green coalition in Düsseldorf, something that was considered completely unlikely until recently.

Furthermore, the election in NRW is especially interesting since the five party system, which was established in Germany with the emergence of the Left Party (originally only strongly represented in Eastern Germany), makes various formations of multicolored coalitions possible. Besides the rather unlikely option of a black-yellow coalition or a red-green coalition (in current polls neither presently command a majority), there is the possibility of other coalitions as well: Rüttgers could build a government coalition consisting of CDU and Greens - a coalition that already exists in Hamburg and in the Saarland (where, however, the FDP is also on board). For both parties, the Christian Democrat-Green coalition is, in spite of considerable differences, an option for the future that has been discussed on both sides, as well as at the national level.

In NRW, the SPD's top candidate Hannelore Kraft could also form an "Ampelkoalition" (traffic light coalition) consisting of SPD, Greens, and FDP, or it could get the Left Party into a red-red-green coalition. However, the latter seems unlikely because the Left Party in NRW consists of a number of Stalinists, Maoists, Trotskyists and other types of separatists in its ranks who, according to SPD party chairman Sigmar Gabriel, want to nationalize anything larger than a sausage stand ("alles, was größer als eine Wurstbude ist, verstaatlichen wollen"). Hence, Hannelore Kraft has designated the Left as being "unable to govern," but she has not specifically excluded the possibility of joining with the Left Party. This attitude provides Rüttgers and his partners the platform to warn against a Volksfront (people's front) at the Rhine and the Ruhr - yet with this false specter he at best is able to mobilize his own supporters.

Internally, Hannelore Kraft justifies her tactics with curious logic: she does not want to encourage those members of the Green Party who hope for a coalition with the CDU. However, these individuals represent only 20 percent of the party in the traditional-to-left oriented eco-party in NRW. The remaining members would be in favor of a coalition with the Social Democrats in order to prevent the coalition alternative of a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD, which would also be possible. However, the Social Democrats have as many concerns about such a constellation as they do about a coalition with the Left Party. The Left Party cannot yet be sure whether they will be able to overcome the '5 percent hurdle' and gain entrance into the state parliament.

Whatever the outcome of the election in two weeks is, it could mean the end of the political career for Helmut Kohl's former Zukunftsminister (Minister of the Future) Jürgen Rüttgers, who has been Minister-President for five years now. On the contrary, if he succeeds in managing to keep his position at the top of either his old or a new coalition, the deputy chairman of the CDU would remain an unpleasant partner for his party leader and Chancellor Angela Merkel. He comes from the relative left wing of the CDU and voices this complaint with a stab at the Federal Chancellor: "the social market economy and social justice sometimes come up too short for me in the CDU" ("Soziale Marktwirtschaft und soziale Gerechtigkeit kommt mir in der CDU zuweilen zu kurz."). Rumor has it that Rüttgers has intentions to follow Merkel as chancellor, which is more than unlikely at the moment, since the chancellor 'sits firmly in the saddle.' Rüttgers also has the intention to become head of the German state in four years time since the present Federal President Horst Köhler cannot be reelected again.

With these plans, Rüttgers follows his political role model Johannes Rau. Although as a Social Democrat, Rau governed NRW as Minister-President for eighteen years and was elected as federal president in 1999, which fulfilled his longtime wish. Rüttgers has attempted to imitate Rau's presidential leadership style and leave the conflicts to its ministers; however, Rüttgers, who is mockingly called Arbeiterführer (leader of the workers) in NRW (because he was elected by a majority of blue collar workers), has not been able to fulfill Rau's motto - reconciliation not division. Within his own party, Rüttgers also has turned some members into his opponents - consequently, he had to fight some embarrassing leaks, such as when it became known that the CDU wanted to collect party donations for private talks with Rüttgers.

However, the balance sheet of the black-yellow government in Düsseldorf is not all that bad. Given the worldwide finance and economic crises that have hindered the government's capacity to act, the coalition has after all invested in education and training, streamlined public administration, and has provided the opposition with only a small target to attack. Additionally, during the last few days, Rüttgers, like his FDP-partner, has already distanced himself from the verdict: "the motto Private Interest before the State does not work anymore for the future" ("Das Motto Privat vor Staat taugt nicht mehr für die Zukunft"). However, the steadily suspicious and cautious Rüttgers has not become truly popular; he is definitely not a talented speaker or even a 'people magnet' like his role model Rau was.

Although the outcome of the election is "on the razor's edge" (as Rüttgers said), the NRW election campaign is extraordinarily boring. If one puts aside the controversial education policy, as well as the desolate situation of municipal finances, defining topics are missing. However, the voters from Rhein and Ruhr are not truly electrified - unless the SPD's top candidate Hannelore Kraft can manage to mobilize the lethargic loyal voters of the Social Democrats. In contrast to the Bundestag elections during the past year, the SPD has a genuine chance of coming into power.

If Rüttgers loses the elections and cannot build a new coalition, this would have long-range consequences for the government in Berlin and for the chancellor: The loss of the black-yellow majority of votes in the Bundesrat would hinder its ability to enforce important laws in the parliament without having to reach a consensus with the SPD or the Greens. This would significantly limit the scope of the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition in Berlin and would simultaneously give a fresh impetus to the SPD (which shrunk to 23 percent during the Bundestag election) under its new chairman Sigmar Gabriel. After all, as always in elections in Germany, a changeover of power is generally a result of errors and mistakes of those currently in power and not of merits or better programs of the opposition.

Dr. Richard Kiessler is a Senior Editor of Foreign Affairs for the WAZ Mediagroup in Essen and a regular contributor to the Advisor.

This essay appeared in the April 29, 2010, AICGS Advisor and was translated by Stefanie Kaller. For the original German version of this article, please click here.