'A New Wind' Out of Washington
By Frederick Kempe

BRUSSELS -- Search for comments on Europe by U.S. President George W. Bush during his first term and the references will be to "our European allies" -- essentially drawing a line between supporters and critics of America's war in Iraq.

Since Mr. Bush's re-election, however, there's been a subtle but striking difference in language -- and that could foreshadow a change in policy. Mr. Bush and other senior officials now usually substitute the more inclusive term "the European Union" for "our European allies." What's more, Mr. Bush's first stop next month on his first trip to Europe since re-election will be to Brussels, home of the EU, and he will spend more time here -- three nights and two days -- and do more to recognize its institutions than any president before him.

When asked what sorts of agreements the U.S. will try to conclude during the president's visit, an administration official said: "The visit is the message." In other words, what's most important won't be what diplomats call "deliverables" but the fact that President Bush has come to schmooze an organization he has largely ignored until now, preferring visits to close allies in London, Warsaw and Rome.

And what the president does drives policy. Washington insiders are talking more about the European Union now than at any point in recent memory. Four senators visited here last week, led by Senate Majority leader Bill Frist. Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge dropped by this month as well, as did a couple of dozen congressional staffers. Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes used the confirmation hearings of new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to cite T.R. Reid's new book, "The United States of Europe." He quoted it: "Sometimes major events take place quietly, their import obscured by the hubbub of more arresting happenings."

So did some Euro-epiphany strike George W. and Washington over the holidays? Has Dick Cheney been eating too much camembert? More likely, frustration in Washington with Brussels's glacial and often indecisive bureaucracy is yielding to the EU's growing influence. Already the union has invented a new currency that is the dollar's major rival, expanded into the world's largest market by annexing 10 countries last year, written and begun ratifying a new constitution, and demonstrated its power to block U.S. mergers and regulate U.S. companies.

"A new wind is blowing," explains Mr. Bush's ambassador to the EU, Rockwell Schnabel, just back in town from the president's inaugural pledge to promote democrats and slay tyrants. To achieve that, one needs a united European partner rather than a union bent on becoming a U.S. counterweight. "We recognize that we've got two decades or so to shape the world before demographic and economic trends will favor China and India," said Mr. Schnabel.

The cynics suspect the shift is more tactical than strategic. If Mr. Bush continued to speak about "our European allies" and bypass Paris while visiting London, he'd merely cede the European high ground to Jacques Chirac. The new approach helps to disarm the French and reduce Britain's isolation as Iraq ally numero uno. (In fact, administration insiders say Tony Blair has done much to drive Mr. Bush's current entreaties to the EU. Shifting the focus from his own unpopular backing of the U.S.-led war in Iraq can't hurt ahead of his general elections in May.)

Yet these tactics emerge from strategic rethink. An argument has raged for months in Washington over how best to handle Europe. One school argues a diminished Europe is not worth America's trouble in a world where China and India are ascendant and the Mideast threatens. Others favor the status quo of cherry-picking European allies to join "coalitions of the willing" when necessary. Still others prefer a division of labor: Europe looks after its own continent with its preference for soft power while the U.S. plays the world stage as the complete superpower. But the voices that are gaining influence consider the trans-Atlantic relationship to be central to any global American ambition.

One can forgive the skeptics. A clumsy Bush administration or visionless Europe could stunt any progress. The EU isn't yet an actor that can deliver consistent foreign policy direction, and mutual distrust is high. The U.S. will be watching closely to see whether European leaders brand the Iraqi election Sunday as sorely lacking or as a good start toward difficult democratic change. For its part, the EU wonders whether the U.S. wants its input or a rubber stamp.

Circumstances at the moment favor the trans-Atlanticists.

Democratic success in Ukraine provides momentum. Seldom has Washington worked so closely with Brussels on an issue, ending with the inauguration Sunday of former opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. The Ukraine experience also showed that the European Union has grown more hospitable to democratic evangelists: Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski, a close American ally and EU member only since May 2004, provided Europe's backbone in Ukraine along with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

The stops chosen for Mr. Bush's trip make clear what kind of EU he prefers. He'll travel from Brussels to Mainz, Germany, where he'll meet with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and hold a town meeting. Wooing Mr. Schroeder, of course, fits nicely in an approach meant to put Paris back into an EU box. But he won't do it in Berlin, where he'd almost certainly face nasty street protests. Instead, he'll visit the federal state of Hesse, run by conservative friend Roland Koch.

His last stop is Bratislava, capital of Slovakia, which is aggressively pushing free-market policies and a flat 12% corporate tax that have attracted significant U.S. investment. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who doesn't much like visiting states liberated from the Soviet yoke, will visit Mr. Bush there, a symbolism not lost on the locals. Yet the EU's newest members wonder how seriously they can take Mr. Bush's promises to promote democracy if he looks the other way while his friend Mr. Putin drags Russia in a decisively undemocratic direction. Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga, speaking for others, will raise the issue at a lunch for Mr. Bush in Brussels with European leaders.

The Bush administration will learn soon enough that changing language regarding Europe will be far easier than harnessing the EU to help it change the world.

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Frederick Kempe is Associate Publisher and Editor of The Wall Street Journal Europe and an AICGS Board Member. Write to him at fred.kempe@wsj.com
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This article previously appeared in The Wall Street Journal Europe on January 26, 2005. It appeared in the January 27, 2005 AICGS Advisor.