Helmut Merkel
By Walter Andrusyszyn

There are remarkable similarities between the low expectations of Helmut Kohl in the early 1980s and Angela Merkel these days. But Kohl proved to be a remarkable statesman, and Angela Merkel may turn out to be an equally important leader in modern Germany's history.

Merkel's saddened jowls gained global recognition when she came across as the defeated rather than the victor in the 2005 election in Germany. She heads a potentially polarizing government with an obstreperous coalition partner in the SPD and a herd of young CDU politicians who can't wait to cut her off at the knees to enhance their chances of becoming leader. But despite these significant liabilities, she has hung in there, been remarkably methodical and goal-oriented and, most importantly, has led Germany to an economic revival that deserves attention, if not praise.

The Helmut Kohl look of the 1970s, particularly the thick framed glasses, is returning to the trendy Berlin cafes as the retro look, but at the time he was the butt of jokes, the object of ridicule, and an anticipated has-been until the FDP's about-face gave him the chance to lead a government in 1982. He consolidated his power, mainly by maintaining meticulous records of his party, and after about six years of fairly unimpressive leadership turned into one of Europe's and the world's political giants when the historical opportunity of German reunification fell to him.

Angela Merkel owes her political rise to Helmut Kohl. She faced a tough slog in her party (still does), but Kohl believed that if she maintained her determination, she would emerge an impressive German leader. Grand coalitions in Germany are a recipe for daily governmental headaches, but despite a bevy of opposition leaders in her cabinet and opponents in her party, Germany's key policies on domestic and foreign affairs bear a markedly 'Merkelian' stamp to them. She has found a way to get what she wants most of the time and has become the boss in Germany - that may come as a surprise to her many detractors because her public persona is still clouded in low expectations, but, similar to Kohl, she has turned that apparent liability into a political asset.

Merkel's priority remains the revitalization of the economy. Economic reforms are far from over, but in 2006, Germany's 3 percent GDP growth exceeded expectations and despite a 3 percent increase in the VAT this year, there was an impressive 0.5 percent increase in the first quarter of 2007. Even more important politically, under Merkel's tenure unemployment has receded some three points to about 7 percent. Consumer confidence is still low, domestic investment continues to be sluggish, but there are also some bright potentials for greater growth in coming years, not the least of which is a housing/property market that still needs to catch up to the gains in the rest of Europe and the United States. Assuming that Merkel's government can keep a respectable level of GDP growth - and I believe it can - Merkel has an opportunity to make great strides on three important fronts:

1) Relations with the United States: It was no coincidence that President Bush was willing to accommodate Merkel's key agenda item of containing global warming at this year's G-8. Regardless of how one assesses the value of such a climate accord, Merkel has steered U.S.-German relations back on track. She has succeeded in reversing Schröder's challenging, if not dumb-witted, approach to the United States for a much more convincing policy of constructive engagement. She by no means agrees with Bush all the time, but her approach is reminiscent of both Kohl's and Blair's adept handling of Republican and Democratic presidents. Merkel's influence has a superb chance of blossoming with the next American president, regardless of who he or she is.

2) Relations with Russia: Putin's Russia is in the midst of troublesome reversals in the promotion of freedom and democratic principles, and his government repeatedly wants to re-write recent history and return the former Warsaw Pact nations into Russia's sphere of influence. The Baltic states, Ukraine, and Georgia are prime targets for this narrow-minded, yet dangerous, approach. Putin's key weapons - oil and particularly natural gas - haven't been truly unleashed and European countries like Germany, which are poor in natural resources but are highly dependent on them, need to shape a more forceful approach to Putin. Merkel has been wisely quiet on this front, but don't underestimate her. People made a big deal of how well Putin could speak German when he met Schröder, but Merkel's Russian is far superior to Putin's German; she has a good measure of the man.

3) European leadership: The European political landscape is always shifting, but Blair's departure, Sarkozy's beginnings, and a decline of the quality of leadership in virtually all of Eastern Europe (with some welcome exceptions like in Estonia) have created a policy vacuum. There are significant challenges within the EU, but Europe needs a leader to address three critical foreign policy issues: Turkey, Ukraine, and the Middle East, especially Iran.

Helmut Kohl may indeed have had the right instinct in selecting Merkel as his heir apparent. I believe she can surprise us all by becoming the next big leader in Europe.

Walter Andrusyszyn was former Director for Central and Northern Europe at the National Security Council and is a frequent participant at AICGS events.

This essay appeared in the July 6, 2007, AICGS Advisor.