Connecting the Dots in Crawford
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Not Just a Barbeque
The meeting in Crawford, Texas, between Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Bush at his private home for a few hours was, on the surface, a gesture of recognition between two leaders who seem to genuinely get along. After all, Bush enjoyed the barbecue at the Chancellor's home town last year, so why not invite her to his own home?

But time is the currency of world leaders; they choose to dispense it for special reasons and political purpose. Chancellor Merkel had just completed a strenuous trip to India and had stopped over in Afghanistan to visit the German troops there. And then a few days later she hops on her plane again to fly all the way to Texas for an overnight with George W. What was to be gained by both the President and the Chancellor with this Blitzbesuch, or quick visit?

On the one hand, it was a clear message from the President that he trusts the Chancellor and wants to hear her opinions. Also, having her on the ranch demonstrates that foreign leaders are willing to make the trip, a fact which Bush can use to demonstrate that he is working with his partners and they want to work with him. He was able to accomplish it twice within a week, with the French President Sarkozy dropping by just before Chancellor Merkel. One might wonder: was it an accident of schedules that two of the top European leaders met with President Bush within days of each other? In any case, Bush's visitors did not come because the weather was good and the hikes through the brush (for Merkel in Crawford) or the black tie event at the White House (for Sarkozy in Washington) were stimulating. There was an agenda on both sides.

Balancing Domestic and Foreign Desires
Chancellor Merkel has been able to manage relations with President Bush in a remarkable way, given the widespread public antipathy toward him in the German public. She has been able to demonstrate how important it is to maintain communications with the White House across a range of issues, regardless of whether there is agreement on issues or not. The result is that she can demonstrate the presence of an open channel to Washington while at the same time showing a skeptical public back home that she can use her influence there to Germany's benefit. The rather soothing words exchanged at their press conference about the need for diplomacy when it comes to dealing with Iran were not the same heard earlier in Washington about a scenario for World War III. The recognition of the concerns about climate change was phrased in a way that suggested a tandem effort to deal with the problem, even while the policies remain somewhat different on either side of the Atlantic.

The President was clearly happy with the visit of the Chancellor. Yet what did Chancellor Merkel get in return for the long trip to Texas?

The measure of success in international diplomacy is not always immediate. Chancellor Merkel knew that this president will leave office almost exactly one year from the time she stood together with him in Crawford last weekend. In that remaining twelve months, the president can still make decisions that will have long-term consequences not only for the United States but also for its partners and enemies. Iran is the central case in point, as the heated up rhetoric in Washington demonstrates. Whether the Bush White House feels that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is necessary now or in the future will be in part determined by the alternative options available short of that, and their perceived effectiveness.

Chancellor Merkel is no fan of the military option, but the question is whether she can deliver other kinds of ammunition to deal with Tehran. In some ways, the discussion over Iran appears to be encouraging a stronger transatlantic connection over the issue, even though it may not have resulted in change in Iran. Merkel promised to talk with the German business community to draw down trade with the Iranians and increase the impact of sanctions. That seems to dovetail with both President Sarkozy's tough words directed at Iran as well as Prime Minister Gordon Brown's comments more recently. Chancellor Merkel will meet resistance from some of those German business leaders who will complain that they are losing market share to the Chinese or Russians by pulling out of Iran. Yet she is also demonstrating the need for taking a stronger position on a threat which in Germany is seen as a major one in the future. While her preference is still the UN route when it comes to sanctions, she is aware that there may be a European Union-wide policy which needs to be implemented. That can have the benefit of actually strengthening European resolve when it comes to the issues; especially since Kosovo will be the next test. The Crawford visit might have set the scene for the next steps in a stronger European move toward Tehran.

Germany's Role in Afghanistan
Merkel's recent and first visit in Afghanistan was also a signal to both the president and to home. The president expressed his appreciation for the German presence there and went so far as to say that he did not expect more, or at least more than "the Chancellor is not comfortable with." That is a different tone than the one taken by others in Washington who complain about the lack of more NATO allies in the south of the country where the fighting is most intense.

This week the Bundestag will debate the extension of Germany's commitment to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), which does have German troops engaged in the south. Here Merkel will be able to further demonstrate her commitment to that engagement as a U.S. partner in the global fight against terrorism in the wake of the Bundestag's approval of the continuation of its commitment to the ISAF operation in the north last month. However, this will not be an easy one for Merkel as the Bundestag is split on the question over extending the OEF mandate. OEF is increasingly perceived as the wrong, all-too-muscular instrument in fighting terrorism along the lines of the broader U.S.-led War on Terror, and lawmakers have raised serious concerns on extending its mandate.

Lobbying for a stronger climate change response from this president is not very promising but being a chief lobbyist for that issue can do her no harm at home either. And more to the point, it can be expected that the next president of the United States will most likely take a different course on this issue, particularly if it is a Democrat. Demonstrating her commitment to that issue, among others, was not only a message heard in Crawford but by others in the race for November 2008.

Was the Chancellor interested in anything else in Crawford? Some might wonder whether she is increasing her lobbying for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, given all this evidence of Germany's commitment to being engaged with the primary issues on the agenda of the Council. That certainly will not happen on the watch of President Bush, if for no other reason that the time is not there nor is the will. Yet, the speech she gave in September at the UN underlined that desire. It would certainly be an enormous feather in her cap if that came through under the Chancellor's watch. And that could be several more years.

Time is currency for world leaders. Where they spend it is not an accident, rather very well thought out in advance and with thoughts about long-term benefits. Connecting the dots between domestic and foreign policy goals is becoming increasingly important in deciphering which way political leadership is moving. The changes in European leadership during this past year in Paris, London, and Warsaw and those coming in Moscow and Washington next year will make it imperative to connect those dots. Chancellor Merkel appears to be very good at doing just that; the Crawford visit is just another example.

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This essay appeared in the November 14, 2007, AICGS Advisor.

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Want to know more? Check out these links for more information.

"Merkel Advocates Strong Sanctions on Iran After Bush Meeting," Deutsche Welle Online, November 11, 2007.

"President Bush and Chancellor Merkel of Germany Participate in a Joint Press Availability," White House Transcript, November 10, 2007.

"U.S. and Germany Vow Iran Diplomacy," BBC News Online, November 10, 2007.