Waiting for Chancellor Merkel: Weighing Expectations in Washington
By Dr. Jackson Janes

The outcome of the September 18 elections was a surprise to many people in Washington D.C. For those who were expecting a decisive electoral win by Angela Merkel, the emergence of a grand coalition was confusing if not disappointing. Understanding the complexity of parliamentary coalitions is difficult enough for Americans who are used to a "winner take all" electoral system. The questions now circulating in Washington revolve around what expectations should be attached to the new government in Berlin and how much power the new Chancellor will have given the constraints of governing under these unique circumstances.

The answers will reveal themselves in the coming months, but the fact is that Germany's importance for Washington has not changed. With regard to foreign policy, the role that Germany plays in Europe remains of central importance. For most of the past half-century, German foreign policy was shaped around striking a balance between its relations with its European partners and the United States. Germany has been most successful when it is able to do what it does best - crafting alliances and networks and using its resources to build up trust and reliability by making its policies and interests always part of something larger than itself. That strategy eventually led to German unification.

Since then, the changing contours of Europe have required that Germany acts as a leader in partnership with its neighbors in forging stability throughout eastern Europe, the Ukraine, Russia, and in the Balkans. Defining the next phase of the European Union's future is of enormous importance if it is to be able to act as a partner with the United States. Washington will be watching to see how Chancellor Merkel defines transatlantic relations and the policies and institutions which have shaped that shared agenda. It will also be watching to see how the political equations are defined with key partners in Brussels, Paris, London, Warsaw, Moscow, among others, while keeping the balance across the Atlantic.

Despite the division of labor within the government in Berlin, the expectation in Washington is that there will be more continuity than change in foreign policy. This is primarily because the set of issues Germany faces has not changed.

The future purposes of NATO will also be an important dialogue. Challenging Russia to maintain a course toward democracy is another. Working with the U.S. to encourage a peaceful transformation in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, to maintain a candid and unified position toward Iran's nuclear ambitions, and to support the fledgling roots of democracy throughout the Middle East are all elements of today's agenda in Berlin and Washington. Differences over the future of Turkey's relationship with the European Union need not be of immediate concern as that dialogue will evolve over the next decade. But understanding the importance of a better dialogue with the Muslim world is critical for the transatlantic relationship in dealing with the threats of terrorism, proliferation and for the chances of democratization.

Another concern in Washington is the ability of Germany to get its economic engines going to encourage more growth in Europe. The sluggish pace of the third-largest economy in the world is not only a problem for the Germans. In addition, strong leadership is needed to deal with economic reforms at the level of both the European Union and the World Trade Organization, where Germany's voice and influence is needed.

All of this requires that both sides of the Atlantic find common cause in meeting these challenges. Washington recognizes that there will not be complete agreement in designing the strategies to deal with these problems and that there will be differing sets of resources needed. But the need for cooperation in dealing with the global agenda is unavoidable. The role of any Chancellor is to explain such priorities to the public. Given the estrangement that has developed in German public opinion toward the United States during the past few years, Chancellor Merkel will need to address these issues candidly. She can also determine the style with which messages are conveyed at home and abroad. She will need to maintain a sense of self-confidence and assurance toward her voters at home and toward her global partners, including in Washington.

While the agenda appears clear, a serious challenge facing the government in Berlin will be trying to avoid becoming embroiled in a circle of self-preoccupation and internal bickering at a time when decisive action and responses are needed at home and abroad. Should both sides of this government see more advantage in posturing against each other for the purposes of waiting for the next election, Washington can only expect the lowest common denominator as the outcome and will see the coalition as a place-holder for the next government. For now, there is a readiness to work with Chancellor Merkel and her government at many levels. Given its own predicaments, the Bush administration needs a capable partner in Europe as never before. The question in Washington is: will there be one in Berlin in the coming months? The hope is that Chancellor Merkel will have a positive answer.

.......................................................................................................................

This essay appeared in the October 20, 2005 AICGS Advisor.

For the German version that appeared in Handelsblatt, please click here.

Please direct comments to: jjanes@aicgs.org