Germany After the Elections: Crisis or Conundrum?
By Dr. Jackson Janes

In the wake of the election indecision on September 18, there is no real crisis in Germany. In fact, the German voters seem to be slightly amused by the predicament they have served up to their political leaders. "See what you can do with this unique puzzle," they appear to say.

In a month or more, the voters might get more impatient if the frustrated party officials fail to come up with a solution. As the political leaders try to sort out majorities to form a government, what we will be witnessing will be a historical transition period in German politics that can lead to a healthier republic.

The current jostling over coalitions between the CDU/CSU and the SPD is going to require that political leaders think beyond their own political ambitions. Since a coalition with CDU/CSU, the Liberals, and the Greens is not possible, and the FDP has made it clear it will not join the SPD in a coalition under any circumstances, the only remaining option is for the conservatives and the Social Democrats to find common ground. It may come about at the cost of the future and the ambitions of both Chancellor Schröder and his challenger, Angela Merkel.

The competing claims of Merkel and Schröder as to who won the election last Sunday is a reflection of the high-stakes poker being played in Berlin. The fact is that both the SPD and the CDU/CSU lost support in comparison with the 2002 election results. The FDP came out a winner, the Greens held their own ground, and the Left party was able to garner the same level of support as the Greens (8.7 percent and 8.1 percent respectively). That is bad news for the Social Democrats should they enter into a grand coalition, and it might help to generate even more support among those disgruntled groups unhappy with the SPD's decision to forge a grand coalition.

The showdown over who is chancellor could last for weeks, even beyond the period of time in which the Bundestag is required to reconvene (within 30 days after the election). Who will blink first, Schröder or Merkel, is not predictable. There is much at stake for the SPD in trying to stick with Schröder. Without him as a junior partner in a grand coalition, there is a possibility of an implosion within party ranks as it seeks to replace its leadership and redefine itself post-Schröder. On the other hand, a coalition agreement with the CDU/CSU with Schröder remaining as chancellor is impossible. There could be a move within the CDU and the SPD ranks to forge a coalition with new leaders. On the conservative side, there are several candidates waiting in the wings, like Roland Koch and Christian Wulff, minister-presidents in Hesse and Lower Saxony, whether it will be now or later. On the SPD side, there are also those who are waiting to take the gavel from Schröder. But for the moment, each side is locked and loaded for battle.

Much of this dilemma will land in the lap of the Federal President. Horst Köhler is responsible for recommending a candidate for chancellor to the federal parliament (the Bundestag). He will be facing a decision as to whether to propose a Chancellor Merkel to the Bundestag, or to wait and see whether an agreement can be worked out over the next weeks between the conservatives and the Social Democrats. In the interim, Schröder remains chancellor.

All things considered, it is likely that Germany will end up with a coalition, which will not necessarily be grand, but it could signal the next phase of the German debate about what needs to change in Germany and why. It may not last long, but the last grand coalition didn't either - only 3 years.

Germany is in better shape than it gives itself credit for; be it economic potential or political stability, Germany has all the resources to be successful. The fact that the election resulted in a stalemate between the political parties, does not mean that the country is in gridlock. Reforms are happening from the ground up. The election results are challenging leaders to reconnect with the public to explain why and how these reforms can be challenging, hard, and advantageous. Political leaders should not lose sight of the fact that the stakes are not only about personal careers, but also about the opportunity to make a difference in shaping Germany's choices. This is not a crisis, it is an opportunity. The political leadership of Germany should make the best of it.

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This essay appeared in the September 23, 2005 AICGS Advisor.