Sunday's Election: Choosing a Mandate or a Muddle
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Germans will go to the polls on Sunday and decide between two main choices which will probably produce the same Chancellor: Angela Merkel. She will either enter into a coalition with the Free Democrats or face a coalition with her main opponent, the Social Democrats, minus Gerhard Schröder. She prefers the former but she and her party may be forced into the latter to form a majority government. Given the fact that many voters remain undecided, a third result would be a continuation of the Red-Green coalition with the support of the newly founded Left-wing group led by Oscar Lafontaine and Gregor Gysi. The consequences for all three options are serious ones for Germany.

A conservative coalition between the Merkel's party and the Free Democrats will push forward with reforms started by Schröder and seek to change both the moods and the minds of voters who are fearful about the future. Germany's economic strength, evident in its commanding lead as the world's top exporter, needs to be enhanced at home through more consumer demand, job creation, tax reductions and a more flexible labor force. That requires as much inspiration and confidence-building as policy changes. It is far more likely that such a coalition will work together on that goal, albeit with some tensions built in to the deal.

Arguments within the conservative camp over both tax increases and tax cuts are already occurring before the elections. Merkel's decision to recruit a well-known scholar advocating a flat tax as the next Finance Minister ran into a buzz saw of criticism from the Free Democrats. She will also encounter friction over immigration policies, driven by long-standing tensions between the Liberals and the third leg of the conservative coalition, the Christian Socialist Union in Bavaria. Those differences are related to differing views on Turkey's bid for EU membership.

Alternatively, in a coalition with the Social Democrats, Merkel would be far less likely to achieve the pace of change needed in Germany. Given the frictions across party lines, the outlook is for gridlock. Building a common platform would be an enormous challenge

Indeed, such a coalition might not last very long before new elections become needed, bringing Germany back to the starting block again.

The third option, permitting Schröder to remain Chancellor and continuing with the Red-Green coalition supported by the Left Party generates more questions than answers, particularly because Schröder has ruled out working with that combination, suggesting that the only option for the SPD is a coalition with Merkel. Continuation will also not provide a resolution to the political gridlock that led to early elections being called.

From a U.S. perspective, the main concern with the outcome of Sunday's election is with Germany's capability to continue to engage itself in a number of key foreign policy arenas. A conservative coalition should not be expected to make significant policy changes but American expectations surrounding German foreign policy directions should also not be elevated significantly. Continuity is just as valuable amidst a government trying to make significant changes at home and in need of a nervous public's support.

Staying the course in securing peace and stability in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, offering assistance to the Middle East process where requested, providing help to the Iraqis (short of a military presence), and keeping a unified position toward Tehran's nuclear ambitions are all policies a conservative coalition can deliver. Flash points such as the international Criminal Court or the arguments over Kyoto will continue but they can be better managed on both sides of the Atlantic. Talking things through with each other off-line rather than through public bullhorns will help.

In a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, the choices will not be any different. The question is whether the team members in such a coalition can agree on priorities, policies and resources with staying power and commitment. The probability for that is low as there will be turmoil on both sides of the lines. The SPD will be looking over its shoulder at the left wing voices pulling at its reins and the CDU/CSU will be worried about maintaining its own support among voters wary about further changes and reform. That is a formula for a short-fused meltdown.

The central challenge for a Chancellor Merkel will be to face the public with a clear message about why both domestic reforms and foreign policy continuities are in Germany's interest. The Red-Green coalition faced the same challenges when they took over power seven years ago, managing some successfully and stumbling over others. At stake for Germany is regaining a sense of purpose for necessary sacrifices, responsibilities and investments in long-term stability at home and on the global stage.

The Chancellor will need a mandate in any case, but the stronger, the better if Germany is going to be able to get through a difficult patch.

And it is not just about Germans. Greater Europe has a large stake in seeing a stronger and competitive German economic motor to help energize a European-wide market. Both European Union partners and the enormous transatlantic economic community also need that adrenaline.

Germany shares a common stake with its fellow EU members in developing a stronger and more capable foreign and security posture in close collaboration with the U.S., which also needs a Germany capable of leading the EU in the right direction to meet challenges in and beyond Europe.

Amidst both the threats and opportunities emerging around them, this is not a time for Germans to be self-preoccupied. It is also not the time for politicians to be fanning voter anxieties but rather to earn the trust they will need to lead them through tough decisions. Germany needs a mandate, not a muddle.

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This essay appeared in the September 16, 2005 AICGS Advisor.