Merkel's Method
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Contrasting Situations
While President Bush is now in countdown mode to the end of his presidency, which is in less than eighteen months, Chancellor Merkel is less than half way through her four year term, and in all likelihood she will have a second. Bush is facing a legacy defined by a foreign policy decision and a mismanaged war. In contrast, Merkel has used her time in office to define herself as a world leader on multiple stages. The first six months of this year provided her with the twin platforms of the EU Presidency and Chair of the G8, both of which were seen as having her clear imprint and resulted in her popularity at home and abroad. While the U.S. Senate holds all-night sessions debating how and when to force President Bush to pull out troops from Iraq, it falls short by only eight votes in overcoming a filibuster; the thwarted proposal this past week seems to only postpone the showdown on the Hill. While Mr. Bush hits record lows below 30 percent of public approval ratings and faces little hope for improvement before leaving office in January 2009, his colleague in Berlin floats on a comfortable 75 percent of public approval.

This week Merkel exercised the traditional routine halfway through her term of offering herself to the press for an evaluation of her track record. Despite frequent public clashes with her Social Democratic partners in the coalition over the past few months, Merkel is evidently enjoying her role as the leader, and the voters seem to be satisfied with her performance. It of course helps to have a growing economy with declining unemployment rates. The question now is whether the high-water mark she has seen in foreign policy will continue among the debates and decisions over domestic policy issues which will fill the agenda next year and the year after. From further tax reform to homeland security policies, debates over energy resources such as nuclear power, and the continuing juggernaut of health care reform, there will be lots of sparks flying in the Bundestag.

This is not to say that foreign policy is off the agenda. The upcoming debate over the continuation of Germany's presence in Afghanistan will be a loud one, although the Chancellor has already stated her intention to prolong the German commitment there. The question of Kosovo and the next steps toward its independence will involve finding a solution to the continuing standoff with Moscow, which has been battling that initiative. The volatile situation in the Middle East and the future nuclear course of Iran are all high-level items.

Yet, the German voters, much like the American voters, are understandably focused on their domestic concerns. And there will be a continuing effort on the part of the coalition partners to position themselves to appeal to these voters with an eye on the prize of the national elections in the fall of 2009.

Strong at the Helm
In the meantime, Merkel has shown a talent for steering through conflicts within the coalition and in some cases within her own party. In some ways, she has a common denominator with Helmut Kohl who had the reputation for sitting things out. Instead of the more confrontational approach taken by her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, who would be less patient with debates and would cry "Basta" for an end to them, Merkel looks for a process to find common ground.

She showed that talent right after she was elected by steering the EU through a difficult budget debate. She was able to find common ground with President Bush despite differences over Guantanamo, climate change, and Iraq. She managed the Franco-German dialogue first with Chirac and now with Sarkozy as demonstrated this week by reaching a consensus on the future of Airbus and EADS. She has weathered battles with President Putin and the Polish government so far, although there seem to be more ahead, be it over Warsaw's ambitions in the EU or Putin's aggressive energy policies.

Her formula for success might be derived from her scientific background. You test for the best method to achieve the best results, trial and error. Of course, politics is not science, it is hard work; Max Weber once compared it to boring through hard wood. But in these days in which voters are increasingly hard to predict and less moored to political parties, they are inclined to look for leadership from individuals with whom they can identify. That is a seductive call for politicians who can engage in populist tactics. One can see how Oscar Lafontaine is using that tactic with the new Left Party.

The Right Strategy at the Right Time
But it makes it much more difficult for politicians who are not able to offer a clear position on issues or are interested in consensus building rather than confrontation. Merkel might simply have the right strategy for the right time: 'small steps' as she likes to call them, not nailing herself down to positions that will haunt her in the long run. She lets her ministers steer controversial debates and receive the bashing by the public and even from the federal president. Then, after the storm is over she takes the lead, collects the pieces and finds a compromise. Small steps, but she keeps on walking.

Returning to the comparison with President Bush, we heard him at a recent press conference saying that he was proud of what he sees as basing all of his decisions on principles, not politics. However, the last several years have shown the price he paid, at home and abroad, for not seeking compromise - be it with Congress or with allies. Merkel has shown more pragmatism. The public seems to agree.

If the comparison with Helmut Kohl's style of steering through conflict is apt, Merkel might look forward to at least a second term. The question is whether the political system that kept Kohl in office for sixteen years is the same stage on which Merkel finds herself today. The answer is no.

Kohl was not in a grand coalition with the SPD. His battles with his partners, the liberals or even with the CSU, were not always easy but everyone had a stake in maintaining the majority in government. Merkel is in a coalition in which consensus building is that much more difficult with the Social Democrats, therefore calling for patience in working out the kinks. Even if both sides of the current coalition might prefer another set of partners, they are forced to work with each other now. And the fact is that the mood within the coalition is, as Mark Twain said about the music of Richard Wagner, better than it sounds sometimes.

Leading Towards a Second Term?
Finally, Merkel might also achieve another term for other reasons. As the pragmatist she is showing herself to be, she appeals to the voters who might have been uncertain about her leadership before the election but are now more confident in her performance. This is of course the well-known "Kanzler bonus" of simply being in office. Furthermore, the SPD is in very uncertain shape as the search for a candidate to oppose Merkel remains an open question. And perhaps there is also a bit of pride in the fact that she is the first woman to inhabit the Chancellery. And for those who, as party membership attrition shows, have less confidence in either parties or ideology - what is left or what is right - Merkel seems to embody the image of wanting to be a problem solver, not a polarizer.

As President Bush heads back to Texas in January of 2009, his past will become the object of debates for years to come. That same year, Angela Merkel's future will be at the center of debate over the future of Germany as the national elections approach in the fall. A test over the next two years for Chancellor Merkel will be whether her method works in the face of tougher economic conditions should there be a down turn. Even under those circumstances, she will need to follow the strategy of building consensus, making compromises, and finding solutions. Within this coalition, she really has no other choice. But so far, she has the confidence of most of the country.

....................................................................................................
This essay appeared in the July 20, 2007, AICGS Advisor.

....................................................................................................
Want to know more? Check out these links for more information.

Transcript of Chancellor Merkel's press conference from July 18, 2007 (German)

Summary of Chancellor Merkel's press conference from July 18, 2007 (English)

"Merkel's Report Card," by Peter Stützle, Deutsche Welle Online, July 19, 2007.

"SPD geht auf Distanz zur Kanzlerin," Der Spiegel Online, July 19, 2007.