Rethinking the Go-it-Alone Policy
By Dr. Jackson Janes

President Bush was quick to accept Chancellor Merkel's invitation to spend a day with her in Stralsund this week. With so many problems confronting him at home and abroad, the idea of spending some time with his friend Angela Merkel in her Mecklenburg-Vorpommern neighborhood might appear similar to his habit of spending time with close friends at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. The President has not made many personal gestures toward other leaders during his time in office; it clearly means that he enjoys the Chancellor's company. The President is also conscious of the fact that he does not have a lot of friends in Europe like her. Prime Minister Blair is approaching the end of his term in London and public support of pro-American policies in Great Britain is waning, President Putin's actions becoming increasingly worrisome, Russia is increasingly diverging from the path of democracy, and uncertain political changes are occurring in many European capitals. The bonding process, both personal and political, between the President and the Chancellor has therefore taken on a special significance for the American side.

With two and a half years left in the White House, President Bush is facing the challenge of deciding how he wants to spend his time, influence and power in shaping the legacy he will leave behind in January of 2009.  With Iraq as the primary benchmark for his Presidency, Bush will be facing the central problem of how to define success in that troubled region, particularly to an increasingly-skeptical American public. But there are even larger problems looming for Bush. It is not only whether Iraq has a functioning government or American troops have begun to be withdrawn. As Iraq stands for the Middle East region with all its challenges and complications as well as the war on terror, the success or failure of the war in Iraq will have far-reaching consequences in other areas of the world. Managing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, the resurgence of the Taliban and the continuing unstable situation in Afghanistan, the break-down of peaceful talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and the process of steering the North Koreans into stopping their missile programs are all challenges the U.S. administration is facing simultaneously.  
 
Making progress in any of these areas will depend on how much help and support President Bush can count on from Europe. The attitude that the United States can handle everything on its own or with "coalitions of the willing" has been going through some serious rethinking in the second term of this President. One sees that in the efforts to support the EU-3 negotiations with Iran, getting all six partners engaged in dealing with the North Koreans, or even using the UN to deal with Somalia and Darfur. Apart from foreign policy problems, Bush is also facing some increasingly- tough criticism at home, and not only from Democrats who smell blood in the electoral waters and the possibilities of regaining the House of Representatives or the Senate in the November congressional elections. He also is facing a rebellious Republican camp that is nervous about the war in Iraq as well as the mountain of debt being generated in both the national debt and the annual deficits, which is anything but a traditional Republican message to the voters.
 
When the President won his second election in 2004, he proclaimed that he had been given some political capital and that he was now going to spend it. How much of that capital is still available? The outcome of the November elections will be a signal. Even if the Democrats regain only one of the chambers, it will make it that much more difficult for President Bush to get any legislation completed by the end of his term in the White House, be it reforms in immigration, social security or health care. That has implications for the domestic and foreign policy legacies that President Bush wants to leave in Washington before he heads home to Texas.
 
Following their stroll around Stralsund, Merkel and Bush will be joining the other G-8 leaders in St. Petersburg, all of whom face the need of forging common responses to serious threats. While North Korea's missiles may be the most recent reminder, the continuing face-off with Iran remains of central importance for not only transatlantic relations, but for Europe and the world.  Russia, this year's host of the G-8 meeting is also a concern, given its attempts to use its increasing leverage with energy supplies to push its own agenda.
 
Chancellor Merkel's last visit to Russia in April signaled a change in tone when it comes to discussing conflicting views on how to deal with Iran, Hamas and Israeli security, and the Belorussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, among many other issues. In particular, Germany and Russia are engaged in joint ventures in developing gas supplies. With Germany's vital role as Russia's top trading partner, the Moscow-Berlin dialogue is of critical importance to both countries and to the United States. Germany's influence on that dialogue and between the EU and Russia is of central importance, but it remains to be seen, however, if this influence can translate into a real policy effect as well as forging a common transatlantic approach in dealing with all of these issues. For example, if things go wrong with the dialogue with Tehran, there is a potential transatlantic conflict as to what options are available to respond. 
 
While President Bush has modified his tune in his foreign policy approach by looking for help from Europe, the question remains how much help Europe can really give, apart from political maneuvering. While European leaders are calling for measures by the Security Council in response to the North Korean missiles tests, and they are willing to continue the EU-3 talks with Iran, Europe (including Russia) and the U.S. have to find new strategies to deal with these states instead of the old carrot (Europe) and stick (the U.S.) maneuver. As one of the intentions of both Iran and North Korea seems to be to string the international community along until they have reached their nuclear goals, and the military option is very unlikely, Europe and the U.S. should use this G-8-summit as an opportunity to start the development of a cohesive strategy towards Iran and North Korea. While democracy has reached more and more countries on this globe, difficult, undemocratic states will not simply disappear and the international community needs to be able to deal with them appropriately.
 
In order to solve these ongoing foreign policy crises, President Bush not only needs to spend his own capital in dealing with the multiple crises he is facing, he will need the help of others, many of which will be gathered in St. Petersburg this weekend. Both at home and on the world stage, how effective the President will be in gathering the help he needs will determine in no small measure how his eight years in the White House will ultimately be judged.

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This essay originally appeared in the July 12, 2006 Süddeutsche Zeitung (Copyright 2006). For the German Süddeutsche Zeitung version, please click here.

Please direct comments to: jjanes@aicgs.org

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Want to know more?  Check out these links:

"President Bush and Chancellor Merkel Joint Press Availability - Transcript." White House website, July 13, 2006.

"Searching for Synergy in Stralsund," by Dr. Jackson Janes, July 6, 2006.

"Bush Spends Days With His New German Ally, Angela Merkel," by William Douglas, McClatchy Newspapers, July 12, 2006.

"Merkel 'Will Have to Put up With Criticism' Over Bush Visit," Interview with Harald Ringstorff, Der Spiegel Online, July 12, 2006.

"Germans Want Merkel to Press Bush on Prison Camp Closure," Deutsche Welle Online, July 11, 2006.

"Bush, Merkel Look to Better Ties," CNN Online, July 12, 2006.