Merkel's Moments
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Chancellor Angela Merkel's second visit to Washington last week underscored the positive synergy which has marked relations between her and President Bush. In dealing with the difficult challenges both leaders are facing at home and on the foreign policy stage, they are going the extra mile to show they respect each other, and can deal with differences. The fact that Bush has accepted Merkel's invitation to visit Germany, indeed her home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on the way to St. Petersburg in July, is another signal that every effort is being made to strengthen ties between Berlin and Washington. The President ought to know that the new chancellor of Germany can be of central importance in confronting major decisions during his final years in office. He also should take notice that there are not many other places he can look to find strong leadership in Europe.

The Iranian Issue
The primary foreign policy challenge for Europe and the U.S. is Iran's nuclear ambitions and the threat of Iranian nuclear weapon capacity. The danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East is the top priority for the White House.  Indeed, the unshakeable belief that Saddam Hussein had the potential for such weapons was the central argument for removing him from power. The fact that there was no evidence found for that capability does not lessen the concern about proliferation occurring elsewhere; in particular, in Iran where the leadership of the country openly admits - even boasts - that they have achieved it.

Concerns about that development have led to an escalation of rhetoric and response in Washington and Tehran. Bush is calling the Iranian nuclear policy a grave threat which might require a military response. The Iranian President is responding with vicious attacks on the U.S., Israel, and all those who would challenge Iran's right to have nuclear energy.

While Europeans share the concern about Iran's nuclear plans, they are also alarmed by the confrontation brewing and the diminishing number of options left to deal with it. A vote in the UN Security Council may result in sanctions but could also open the window to potential military strikes.  Iran's military capabilities could include nuclear weapons and long range missiles able to reach not only Israel but Europe as well.

Last February at an international conference in Munich, Chancellor Merkel impressed her audience with a speech in which she compared the looming Iranian threat with Hitler's escalation of power and intimidation in years before World War II. She suggested that the failure to deter him in the 1930s left war as the only option to defeat him.

In fact, Germany, Great Britain, and France have been engaged in efforts to deter Iran from proceeding with its nuclear plans, but they have failed so far. Unless diplomatic efforts can break new ground, the next step is to go to the Security Council and begin the implementation of sanctions on Iran; the biggest challenge will come then. The need to keep a cohesive stance to make sanctions effective will depend on the long-term commitment of Europe and the U.S. and their combined ability to convince Russia and China to support them. The outlook for success is not good. Yet, in all of this, Germany will be central to that effort.

Looking for Leaders
The ability to maintain an effective policy toward a defiant Iran will be dependent on strong, consistent political leadership in Europe. At the moment, that is a rare commodity. Italy is stumbling to put a new government together; Tony Blair has been seriously weakened at home in large measure due to his stance on Iraq and will be leaving the stage in the near future; and France is already in the throes of a political battle over President Chirac's successor in next year's election without a clear victor in sight.  Chancellor Merkel also faces constrictions within the coalition she was forced to make with the Social Democrats after last year's elections.

Yet Merkel is the one to whom President Bush - or whoever his successor will be - will have to look in evaluating what Euro-U.S. relations can tackle in the coming years. Assuming she can get sufficient command of her domestic agenda, she will be a primary partner when the transatlantic dialogue confronts difficult challenges. In addition to Iran, the danger of a failing Doha trade round is looming. The course of Israeli-Palestinian relations has been made tenser after the Hamas victory in Ramala. Russia is on an unpredictable path in its domestic and foreign policy. Iraq and Afghanistan continues to smolder and their futures are uncertain.  The Balkans remains a troubled region. Finally, the rising strategic importance and price of energy is having a serious impact on global economic developments. Washington will need to count on Europe in coping with these problems, but the question is whether Europe can respond effectively. There is no strong voice in Europe at the moment, yet Merkel has the greatest potential to become one. Washington needs to remember that while Merkel is trying to pull Europe together, U.S. policy should not try to pull it apart.

Just as Helmut Kohl became a dominant leader in Europe in the 1990s and strengthened the European Union after German unification, Angela Merkel has an opportunity to re-energize Europe and give it direction in facing up to real challenges, after the crises of the recent past. The splits in Europe over the Iraq war, the faltering European constitution initiative,  and the adjustments Europe is making to its own enlargement have generated a sense of continental-wide uncertainty.

While Merkel has quickly gained the trust of President Bush, she has also made gains with her European counterparts, paying more attention to the smaller states in the EU, and reaching out to the newer members. Next year, Germany will have both the presidency of the European Union and the chairmanship of the G-8 meeting. If Merkel can find her voice, she can inspire confidence not only in Germany but in a Europe looking for direction.

Maintaining Support at Home
Yet being a strong leader will also require that the chancellor maintain domestic support in the face of many difficult decisions that lie ahead. She is fully aware that her current high level in opinion polls may begin to sink once the full impact of reforms, whether they are regarding pensions, health care, or reduced unemployment benefits, among others, kicks in. A three percent increase in the VAT begins in 2007, which will hit the consumers in the pocketbook.  And energy prices will continue to rise, hitting both the consumer and industry alike. The betting in Berlin is that economic growth will have gained some traction and reforms will be seen as necessary to keep it going. Yet the measure of success will be as much in the heads of German consumers as in the bottom line of the business community.  Maneuvering all of this through a grand coalition will not be an easy task.

Merkel will have her moments in facing high-stakes foreign policy decisions as well as hard domestic political choices. It is too soon to predict what her successes or failures will be, but the chancellor has plenty of opportunities to lead Germany and Europe in meeting the challenges ahead. Washington is hoping that she seizes them.

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This essay appeared in the May 12, 2006 AICGS Advisor.

Please direct comments to: jjanes@aicgs.org

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Want to know more?  Check out these links:

Merkel Calls for Diplomatic Resolution of Nuclear Row With Iran; Pravda English Online Edition, May 11, 2006.

Iran Tops Bush, German Chancellor's Talks; The Washington Post/The Associated Press, May 4, 2006.

Bush hat Vertrauen in Merkel gefasst; Die Welt, May 4, 2006.

Interview of the President by Kai Diekmann of BILD; The White House, May 5, 2006.

Interview of the President by Sabine Christiansen of ARD German Television; The White House, May 5, 2006.