Politics is Like That Box of Chocolates... You Never Know
By Dr. Jackson Janes

The Forrest Gump Rule
The recent decisions of both the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Greens (known in Hamburg as GAL) to form a governing coalition in Hamburg represents the first state (Land) level coalition of the former arch enemies in Germany. Shades of things to come elsewhere, maybe even at the federal level? The rumors fly fast around that question. Yet it is far too early to know whether the Hamburg experiment will be successful, let alone whether it can be transferred to the national level. Still, at a time when German political parties are scrambling for voters who are increasingly disenchanted with their parties, the combination of possible alliances is also becoming scrambled. You never know what you are going to get when it comes to political races for power.

The results of the Hamburg elections last February left the city in limbo for a while. The CDU Mayor, Ole von Beust, was unable to recapture his absolute majority, and the Left Party had just enough votes to make it into the city's parliament, known as the Bürgerschaft. The Social Democrats (SPD) gained a bit of support, the Greens lost a bit. But the sensation was that the Left Party had just enough to be represented in the parliament, and therefore a contender for a coalition. The problem for them was that no one wanted to join ranks with them, even though a combination of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Party would have had a majority. Efforts to create a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD fell flat immediately after they began. The shadow of the national coalition, with all its problems at the moment, did not bode well in the Hanseatic city. The remaining option for the still-popular mayor was to explore a coalition with the Greens, which would comprise a viable majority.

The Desire to be in the Majority
Despite a lot of seemingly insurmountable differences at the beginning, the surprise was that there was a lot more inclination on both sides of the fence to make this work. After the Mayor is officially elected next week, it will be then be up to both sides to see if they can pull this first-time experiment off. There were a number of issues kicked down the road and time will tell when and if they come up to bite both sides of this new coalition.

The Greens have long since proven that they can govern at the national level as well as the state level. The federal SPD-Green coalition in Berlin was able to push through reforms in domestic politics and made breakthroughs in foreign policy as well during its run from 1998 to 2005. The Greens have been in coalitions in several states, big and small, including Hamburg. But it is not the viability of the Greens as a coalition partner which was unique about the coalition in Hamburg today. It is the fact that some political taboos have been broken and that seems to be refreshing to the Hamburg voters - at least so far.

The interesting thing about any references to the possibility that this same combination might work at the federal level is the fact that there is a missing part to the equation. Unless both the CDU and the Greens were able to drum up enough support before the national elections in the fall of 2009, they would need a third partner to gain the majority. Since the Left Party would not be acceptable to the CDU and the Greens, the only option is the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which, by the way, did not muster enough votes to make it into the Hamburg Bürgerschaft. The FDP is in coalitions in other large states, such as Baden Württemberg and North Rhine Westphalia. But that party is also stuck at around 10 percent of the popular vote nationally, so it would not be in a position to form a coalition with the CDU on its own.

Rethinking Traditional Coalitions
The fact is that any government following next year's elections, other than a continuation of the current coalition between the CDU and the SPD, will need three partners to make it work. There are two other variations, that being a coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the FDP or an improbable coalition of the SPD, the Left and the Greens. That leaves a lot of rethinking necessary on the part of everyone considering these options.
 
Given the current extreme weakness of the SPD and its leadership in the national polls, the challenge facing the Social Democrats to generate enough steam in the coming year and a half will be enormous. They may wind up switching leaders - again - to see if they can catch up to the CDU and to the continuing high level of popularity of Angela Merkel. Merkel has said she does not see the viability of a CDU-Green coalition next year, and she is right; the numbers do not work. But if she wants out of the current coalition, and if the FDP continues to fail to generate enough support to make it a two party partnership, she only has one more option, and that would be to work out a deal with a Green Party willing to negotiate. There is no love lost between the Greens and the FDP. Yet the desire to get back into a governing position may be strong enough to bridge that gap, as it did for the Greens in Hamburg.

Also, the experience of the FDP in Hesse may be illustrative. After elections there earlier this year, the FDP took a take-it-or-leave-it position in dealing with the potential partners in a coalition with the SPD, and wound up essentially with no cards to play. There is still no final result in Wiesbaden with the current Minister-President Roland Koch acting as a caretaker leader until perhaps new elections are called.

Looming National Elections
It is a long way to the national elections and much will happen to shape the atmosphere in the meantime. It is likely that Germany's economy will continue to drift down in the wake of the global shake out. Growth rate predictions are being trimmed down. Despite the recent uptick, Germany cannot avoid the same problems facing everyone else in the coming year or two. So just in time for the elections next year, economic indicators might not look as good as they do now. That will also give an opening to the Left Party to get on its soapbox and score some additional populist points along the way.

All of the political parties will be positioning and posturing themselves in the coming year and a half for next year's elections. In effect, the campaign is already in gear. Hamburg's new government may work fine for Hamburg and that may be the bottom line. But as they say in politics, never say never.

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This essay appeared in the May 2, 2008, AICGS Advisor.

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Want to know more?

AICGS Podcast: Ralf Fücks of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung and the Green Party speaks with Dr. Jack Janes about the German party landscape.

"Hamburg's Greens Approve Landmark Coalition Deal With CDU," Deutsche Welle, April 28, 2008.

"Mehr als eine Vernunftehe," by Jens Schneider, Süddeutsche Zeitung, April 25, 2008.

"Sag niemals nie," by Joschka Fischer, Die Zeit, April 21, 2008.

"Schwarz-grüner Frühling mit Wolken," by Michael Schlieben, Die Zeit, April 18, 2008.

"Merkel's Party and Greens Agree to Share Power in Hamburg," by Judy Dempsey, International Herald Tribune, April 17, 2008.

"Schwarz und Grün wollen Geschichte schreiben," by David Böcking, Financial Times Deutschland, April 17, 2008.