Afghan Uncertainties
By Dr. Jackson Janes
 

Hard Decisions Ahead for Obama and Merkel
When does a political leader become defined by one overriding issue, for better or for worse? Answer: when the issue becomes a dominant theme - for better but often for worse.

In a presidential system as in the U.S., it is the president who gets tagged with success or failure at home and abroad. In a parliamentary coalition system as in Germany, there is more competition for the glory and more efforts to shift the blame among the parties in power as well as in opposition. Nevertheless, the chancellor winds up with the burden or the benefit of failures or successes as leader of the ruling coalition.

In the realm of foreign policy, Afghanistan serves as a case study.

After one year in office, President Obama now "owns" the war in Afghanistan whichever way it unfolds, particularly with his escalation of efforts in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He can look back in recent American history to see how it turned out badly for Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam. He can also see how it turned out better for Ronald Reagan with regard to the end of the Cold War. One president got the blame and the other the glory, however well deserved. Obama has to feel the ghosts of both legacies in the White House now.

In contrast, Chancellor Merkel owns Germany's policies in Afghanistan, not the war itself. She continues what her predecessor Gerhard Schröder had begun with Germany's Afghan engagement. During her first term in office, she stayed the course Schröder had set and even increased Germany's presence there. But that was done within the grand coalition - which included the support of Schröder's Social Democrats, who are now in the opposition. In her second term now Merkel has maintained her course with the new coalition partner, the Free Democrats, but she is having to respond to increasing disapproval in the German public. And despite the fact that the SPD - in coalition with Merkel's CDU/CSU - was behind the policies then, they also see those polls and will be watching to see how vulnerable she becomes in the next year or two.

Mixed Results in London
Following President Obama's decision to send up to 30,000 additional troops into Afghanistan - and knowing that Washington would expect Germany to step up its presence there - Merkel called for an international conference to discuss the need for what she called a comprehensive approach to a policy which could lead to a "responsible withdrawal" from Afghanistan. Germany's emphasis was more on giving aid and police training to Afghanistan and less on sending more troops. The results of that conference in London two weeks ago were mixed; money and troop commitments were made but it is the U.S. which continues to do the heavy lifting.

Together Merkel and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle will now have to push that package through the Bundestag in the coming months against some noisy opposition. By stressing the need to continue Germany's engagement in Afghanistan but also equally stressing the goal of finding an exit strategy, Merkel and Westerwelle were in effect following President Obama's message to his own public about starting a drawdown in 2011. With the war now in its ninth year, the U.S. public is also getting tired of both the physical and financial costs. But how long it will take to stabilize Afghanistan and transfer responsibility for it to the Afghani people is anyone's guess.

Finding an Exit Strategy
Given the unpredictable path ahead, any plan for an exit out of Afghanistan is going to be subject to the conditions there. But the domestic pressure in those countries with high levels of engagement - military or otherwise - to explain their involvement is only going to grow. President Obama has put his presidency on the line with his decision to raise the stakes. That bet must have some measureable success by 2012 for Obama to have a stronger chance at reelection.

Chancellor Merkel has committed Germany to sticking with its presence but she will also need to be thinking of ways to be drawing down by 2012 if she chooses to seek a third term the following year. If things look worse over the next year or two, it is going to be very difficult to sustain domestic support in Germany.

The Same Unresolved Question on the Agenda
All of this and more will be on the table for discussion at the upcoming Munich Security Conference. It will be another important platform to discuss goals and methods. Yet it was a year ago that the same topic, same problems, and same unresolved question were at the top of the conference agenda. How much progress has been made since then and will be made by the next security conference in February 2011 depends on whom you ask.

In addition to the focus in Munich, NATO is also debating the issue as it spends 2010 working on its new strategy to be announced later in the year. It will be impossible to separate how that strategy is to be both credibly crafted and presented without reference to Afghanistan, which is essentially an ongoing field test of the Alliance's mission in that conflict-ravaged country. A sustainable end of that effort will say a lot about the future of NATO.

Overcoming Skepticism at Home
Merkel and Obama will argue that there remains a need to help the Afghanis take responsibility for their own security, stability, and safety. It will still need years of help to rebuild after all the years of war and civil strife. But if you ask most Germans, they will probably view such claims skeptically. And more Americans are taking a similar view. Both Obama and Merkel know that. They also know what it might mean for both the sustainability of the Afghan engagement as well as their own sustainability in office.

While Obama might recall Lyndon Johnson's or even Jimmy Carter's fate as president, Merkel might recall how Helmut Schmidt lost his reelection in 1982 over, in part, a foreign policy position he took, or how Gerhard Schröder won reelection in 2002 with the position he took on the Iraq war. What lessons either leader draws from those experiences remain to be seen.

There will be few ways out of Afghanistan that leave a viable basis of stability in the long run without support both from the Afghanis working with us or without the public support in both Germany and the U.S. to sustain it. While Obama and Merkel are working to shore these up, neither is certain as of now.

....................................................................................................
Dr. Janes is currently attending the 46th Munich Security Conference.

This essay appeared in the February 4, 2010, AICGS Advisor.

....................................................................................................
Want to know more?

"How to End the War in Afghanistan," By Ahmed Rashid, BBC News, February 2, 2010.

"Afghanistan Conference: Will the New Strategy Work?" By Paul Reynolds, BBC News, January 29, 2010.

"Nato feiert Durchhalteparolen als Gipfelerfolg," By Carsten Volkery, Der Spiegel, January 28, 2010.

"Patching Things Up," The Economist, January 28, 2010.

"The Afghan Conference: A Blueprint for Victory or a Call to Retreat?" By Chris Kline, Deutsche Welle, January 27, 2010.

AICGS Coverage of the Kunduz Bombing Scandal

From Davos to Munich and Beyond, By Dr. Jackson Janes, February 5, 2009.