Coalitions Looking for a Compass
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Not Merely a Primary Election
Within the next few days, experts will be trying to read the tea leaves of the Republican party primary in Florida and the Democratic party primary in South Carolina to see which way the wind will be blowing for the candidates on the super primary day of February 5. While each state primary shapes up around a slightly different mix of issues, they will each be interpreted by the winning candidates and the voters as evidence of victory or, for the runners up, momentum toward winning the nomination of their respective parties.

Germany does not have primaries. Between the federal elections every four years, the results of Land (state) elections, and sometimes even communal elections, are used to test the direction of political winds moving not only through the individual state but also in Berlin. Chancellor Merkel will be facing a challenging year. The two state elections coming up on January 27 in Hesse and Lower Saxony, another in Hamburg in late February, and then another in Bavaria in September will offer initial signals on the mood of German voters in different parts of the country.

The Influence of Global Economics
The current panic wave running through the stock markets all over the world is hard for anyone to fathom, let alone project how long this economic valley really looks to be. For Americans, the impact of this lurch toward a recession is going to have a strong impact on the elections next November, most likely to the advantage of the Democrats.

For Germans, a deteriorating economic situation will see its impact felt more fully next year when a fall-off in exports, job losses, and a reduction in growth rates overall will become tangible throughout 2009, just in time for the national elections scheduled in the fall of that year.

This is an environment in which tactics of a more populist, short-term and protectionist nature need to come into play instead of long-term strategies. The German elections this year and next will be shaped in part by the debate about economic inequality and the so-called growing "justice gap" between rich and poor. Only a small percentage of Germans still believe that German society is fair, an instinct that is deeply entrenched among German egalitarian thinking. The Social Democrats will be striking this chord in particular in their campaign, emphasizing the need for minimum wage laws as well as reforms of health care and inheritance laws. They will be chased by the Linke party in that direction. But Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats will be unable to ignore the issue, and will feel the full force of voters worried about their futures.

Political Mud-Slinging Instead of Serious Debate
In Hesse the campaign has been marked by a nasty debate over criminal behavior by young immigrants, set in motion by comments by the current Minister-President, Roland Koch. Reacting to an incident not even in his own state but rather in Bavaria, Koch’s call for a crackdown on juvenile crime released a mud-slinging contest between the CDU and the SPD, a contest which has dealt minimally with serious issues. The debate and its low quality reminds one of the rancorous exchange in the U.S. over immigration; in neither case does one find an opportunity to focus on real solutions to real problems. This issue does not figure so directly in the campaigns in Lower Saxony or in Hamburg for now, but it can emerge as part of the campaigns next year unless the political leaders on both sides of it can manage it better.

There is a larger picture emerging from these campaigns as well as those expected next year and it suggests the transformation of political alignment in Germany (and not only there) among the parties and the voters. As the political leadership tries to decipher where the voters are in their expectations, fears, and needs, they are finding that the boundaries between left and right, liberal and conservative are becoming murky and unpredictable. The SPD’s effort, for example, to position itself aggressively toward the CDU/CSU while in government with that same party results in two things for the two sides of that coalition: a watering down of differences and at the same time appeals to populist issues.

Looking Towards 2009
The three smaller parties - the FDP, the Greens and the Linke - are struggling to maintain their limited share of the voters but are not gaining much of a profile in the process. If the Linke party makes it into the state parliament in Hesse, it will offer an opportunity to form a government with the SPD and the Greens, neither of which is interested. The question is: what does the Linke have to offer the voters other than protest? If Roland Koch loses his absolute majority on Sunday and forges a coalition with the FDP, that will keep him in office for another five years but he will still be facing the problem of figuring out what caused his loss in support to make that coalition necessary. If the same thing happens in Hamburg, Ole von Beust will have to answer the same question as he decides on a coalition to run that city. In Lower Saxony, Christian Wulff seems to be less worried about his status as Minister-President seeking reelection in a coalition with the FDP, yet he also has aspirations in Berlin down the road. Watching his political act in Hannover might reveal how he intends to become a successor to Angela Merkel.

The Chancellor will be watching all of this very carefully to see what it suggests about next year. In September 2005, she was pushing Germany to make some needed changes. The voters did not respond well and the result is the current coalition with all of its fragile consensuses and conflicts. Some are referring to the tactic used at both the federal and state levels of government to hold on to power as being radically flexible. It makes one immediately think of Bill Clinton. But it also has its downsides, especially when the political environment is one that needs a compass, not a weather vane, something that is urgently needed on both sides of the Atlantic.

....................................................................................................
This essay appeared in the January 25, 2008, AICGS Advisor.

....................................................................................................
Want to know more?

AICGS Coverage of the January 27 Elections in Hesse
and Lower Saxony