Setting the Stage
By Dr. Jackson Janes
A Successful Meeting
Chancellor Merkel left Washington last week after receiving a warm greeting all around town. She might have even wondered how that happened, given that not everyone she met knew her very well and many were seeing her as Chancellor for the first time. However, there was a pervasive sense of confidence and trust in her and her intentions with regard to the transatlantic relationship. For some in the White House, anyone but Gerhard Schröder would have been welcome. The comments about transatlantic relations Merkel made sounded reassuring to her audiences; for example, the primacy of NATO was something she stressed as the main vehicle for the transatlantic dialogue, even while she emphasized that it is important to define the mission beyond a military alliance. The critical comments she aimed at Guantanamo did not shake the President at the joint White House press conference, which they both seem to have enjoyed. That is a valuable basis on which to deal with both the agreements and disagreements that shape the dialogue among nations. It is also a reminder that both the style and content of political leadership can make a huge difference in politics. Yet now that the stage has been reset for the German-American dialogue, the hard work begins. Issues that will require careful coordination and collaboration in the coming months will begin to test the staying power of the dialogue between Washington and Berlin. Part of that test will be shaped by the domestic arenas on both sides of the Atlantic, and another part of it will be seen in the immediate foreign policy challenges that lie ahead. Crafting Consensus at Home
It was amusing to hear the President mention how one thing he has in common with the Chancellor is that neither one of them was elected with a landslide majority, a moment of unusual candor from George W. Bush. The observation does point at the difficult task for both leaders in crafting a consensus at home while trying to do the same among allies. Just as President Bush is facing increasing criticism of his policies and decisions, and not only from the Democrats, Chancellor Merkel will be facing tough scrutiny from both her opposition and also from some of her own coalition members. Germany is in the midst of reshaping its consensus on economic and social policies at home and facing the consequences of an increasingly competitive world market in which it has consistently been a winner. The equations of the social and market dimensions of German society are being rebalanced to keep up with changes in German society, such as its demographic dips in population, immigration inflows and challenges to its traditional strength as a manufacturing nation. What worked during the last five decades in managing these tasks may not work the same way in the twenty-first century. Discussing those issues is tough, but needs to be done without exacerbating a sense of winners and losers in the process -- a challenge for any political leader. The Chancellor will get a report on how she is doing in March when she faces three state (or Land) elections, which will give her an idea as to how the public perceives her. President Bush is anticipating the November Congressional elections as a measure of where his policies will leave the Republican hold on Washington two years before he leaves office. Given the intensity of the domestic political debates in Germany and the United States, it will not be surprising if they also impact the German-American dialogue. In her messages in Washington, the Chancellor referred to competitive clashes between Boeing and Airbus, to the pressures of globalization, and the risks of protectionism -- all issues that will impact domestic and foreign policy decisions. Common Values in Foreign Policy
Part of the debates in Germany will also include a growing need to think through its foreign policy roles and responsibilities and to make that a part of a national dialogue. Before the visit in Washington, there was a good deal of German discussion (and concern) that U.S. expectations of the Chancellor and Germany might exceed capabilities. Merkel made it clear that we need to talk through our policies and perspectives, overlapping and divergent, without losing sight of the values we share. She also stressed the need to restate our common commitment to those values but also to ask ourselves what that means in the new environment of a new century. Merkel and Bush found common ground in talking about securing freedom and security. Getting the policies right will be a goal we share but will also require that we pay attention to our respective debates as to how we get there successfully. This year will mark an intense argument in the United States about American foreign policy priorities in the lead up to the November elections. Amidst the higher decibel levels on both sides of the Atlantic, it will be a challenge to understand what the consensus emerging from the political fray will be. An immediate test case is how to respond to Iran's nuclear ambitions, a subject which Merkel and the President addressed at length last week during the press conference. During the coming months, this issue will dominate a good deal of the discussion on both sides of the Atlantic. How we think about this challenge -- and there may be more of them soon -- will be important in defining our policies. Again, it will also be an opportunity for defining how our domestic debates can be more closely linked on these issues in the future. There will also be the continuing struggle for stability in Iraq, the uncertain path of the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, relations with China, and many other global issues that will impact Berlin and Washington directly. We need to retool some of our instruments in dealing with these challenges; we also need to rethink the concepts behind our policies. Again, what worked in the past may not work in the future. But we will have a shared stake in finding the right formulas. That will involve making sure that we have a common vocabulary when we talk. That has been a serious problem in the past few years across the Atlantic. We may think that we mean the same thing in discussing issues like terrorism, freedom or security, but often we have been talking past each other. The Merkel visit seems to signal that we may be able to fix that problem. The stage is set for Berlin and Washington to try and work through a tough agenda together. Parts of the agenda look familiar, other parts are emerging in new ways. To tackle both, the hard work begins now. ............................................................................................. This essay appeared in the January 20, 2006 AICGS Advisor. Please direct comments to: jjanes@aicgs.org .............................................................................................
Want to know more? Check out these links: "Plain Talk From Merkel to Putin," By Judy Dempsey, International Herald Tribune, January 17, 2006. "Merkel's Middle Way," By Jim Hoagland, The Washington Post, January 19, 2006. "Zeit für eine auβenpolitische Debatte," By Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Der Tagesspiegel, January 19, 2006.
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