The Other Election - The Specter of Florida 2000
By Dr. Jackson Janes

The majority of the elections for one third of the Senate and all members of the House are predictable for the incumbents. With a majority in both chambers, the Republicans are counting on keeping control after November 2nd. Most Americans have little interest in these races and unless they have a grudge or a single issue, they will vote for the incumbent.

While there are a few races in play, I doubt that there is enough momentum to change control to the Democrats. Nor will the Republicans pick up enough votes to reach the majority they need to push through legislation against a Democratic opposition.

What that means for a Kerry White House is - nothing new. Divided government was the rule for most presidents for the past fifty years, primarily the Republicans since Eisenhower. Republican control of Congress is recent and has been accompanied by an increasing emphasis on ruthless pushing of an agenda, which compliments the current President well.

If Kerry faces a Republican Congressional majority, the battle over domestic and foreign policy will be very tough. The Republican leadership will resent the loss of the White House and will test President Kerry on every issue, from tax rollbacks to energy policies, from Iraq, Iran and the Middle East to the UN.

Germans should keep in mind that the current efforts of the Schröder team to push for a Security Council Permanent Seat is a perfect target for conservatives in the Senate still fuming over Berlin's position on Iraq. If

Kerry were to come out in favor of that initiative, it is likely that he would get a lot of heat from the Senate, which has hearings about the UN reforms.

Kerry would also take hits from Congress if he came to the Europeans with a proposal on Iraq and did not get the kind of response he had expected. A Republican majority in Congress will enjoy roasting him on that as well.

Bush 2 would have an easier time with the Congressional leadership; but not entirely easy. The deficit hawks would be angry about the drunken sailor like spending of the White House as they worry about the dollar and the trade gap and further tax cuts. Some Republicans, like John McCain,

Chuck Hagel, and Richard Lugar, would continue their criticism of the management of the Iraq crisis, Iran, and North Korea. Much will depend on whom Bush chooses to replace Powell at State (if he leaves), Rumsfeld at Defense, and others who would be the primary interlocutors with Congress.

Finally, Bush would be potentially presenting several new candidates for the Supreme Court in a second term. Kerry might face the same decision. Either man will need Congressional support and that will be as contentious as any other issue on the agenda. In that sense, this election is about all three branches of government.

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This essay appeared in the October 28, 2004 AICGS Advisor.