Election 2004 - The Specter of Florida 2000
By Dr. Jackson Janes

Four years ago, Americans watched a serious constitutional crisis unfold and then get resolved in favor of President Bush. While many did not agree with the result, most people accepted it and went about their lives afterwards. Nine months after his inauguration, President Bush led the nation through an even worse crisis and concerns about the election dissolved amidst the anxiety and concerns about the security of the nation.

The support Bush enjoyed during that year after September 11, at home and abroad, melted in the heat of the arguments over Iraq. Revelations about mistakes in intelligence and Bush's confrontational mode in dealing with his critics have resulted in the polarization today shaping our domestic and international debates.

The last days of the presidential campaign are making predictions impossible. The race is tightening while the danger of another legal battle over the results, whatever they are, is growing. Yet what happens when it is all over? Will the losers concede defeat graciously, like Al Gore did four years ago? Or will there be an ongoing political civil war over the issues that have divided the country so seriously?

Regardless of who is in the White House, the battles in Congress will be as tenacious as they have been for the past several years. Assuming the Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House continue, the clashes over domestic and foreign policy issues will be explosive. For those who claim the atmosphere in Congress is already poisonous, it could get worse. All the claims and accusations exchanged on the campaign trail between Bush and Kerry will continue to mark the legislative arguments, be they about tax policies or Iraq.

If President Bush gets a second term, he can hardly be expected to change his style or his messages. The need to justify the decisions on Iraq will require the continuation of military force and, at a minimum spending at the current levels if elections are to be held there as planned in January. Counting on more assistance from countries that can actually deliver it is speculative at best.

At the same time, Bush's intention to push forward his tax policies will generate enormous friction with the Democrats and some Republicans as the deficits rise, the dollar plummets in value and the specter of bottomless government debt looms larger. Yet, if the president interpreted his controversial victory in 2000 as a sufficient mandate to move forcefully with his policies, it is likely that a more decisive victory now will add to the apparent unwavering confidence he already has maintained throughout these past four years.

Should John Kerry be in the White House, getting a consensus at home or abroad will be no less difficult. Republicans in the Congress, angry about the defeat of President Bush, could channel their ire at the new president and his initiatives, foreign and domestic. Efforts to gather foreign support for stabilizing Iraq or to deal with Iran -- the next fire burning in this troubled region - might backfire abroad and at home if Kerry demands too much too quickly.

Regardless of the possible scenarios after November 2 nd, the next four years are going to be very difficult in Washington and for those dependent on its decisions around the world. Remaining rancor on either side of the political fence after the election is over will further undermine the efforts to reach consensus on critically important issues. If we have another court battle, it will make matters worse.

Four years ago some argued that the resilience of the American political system and of its citizens proved itself capable of handling a unique challenge to the legitimacy of American democracy. But if we are going to face that same challenge every four years, it bodes nothing good for the Republic.

It might be that the passion generated by this election campaign will yield one important positive result. There may be far more citizens this time making use of their right to vote than normally show up. In the 2000 election, around one hundred and six million people voted. This time around, ten million more voters might show up at the polls. Regardless of those numbers, we need a clear decision to avoid the nightmare of a president chosen by the courts, not the people.

As for the Europeans watching this contest carefully, the best advice may be to start getting their own houses in order to be in a position to deal with any potential path taken in Washington. This week's clash in Strasbourg between the Commission and the European Parliament underlines the difficulties facing Europe. The deadlock there will be difficult to overcome or explain to a European public frustrated with the European Union anyway.

Digesting expansion as well as deepening its institutional foundation remains a slow moving and often cantankerous process.

If we have unpredictability on both sides of the Atlantic, it will be that much more difficult to achieve a common basis for action when and where it is most needed -- in the Middle East.

The next weeks in the United States and in Europe will be critical to forming a consensus at many levels. All politics may be local but the ripples of American elections and European parliamentary votes are going to felt globally.

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This essay appeared in the October 28, 2004 AICGS Advisor.